Army @ Tulane Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

It's been 316 days since Army steamrolled Tulane in the 2024 American Conference Championship Game in West Point, NY, 35-14. Much has changed for both programs, but in different ways. Army (3-3, 2-2), while not subject to the same vicissitudes that 99% of the FBS must face, and that come with the transfer portal era, has not exactly picked up where they left off after a remarkable 2024 campaign. Graduated are a number of key players from the Black Knights conference championship-winning squad, most notably quarterback Bryson Daily.

Army lost on opening night to FCS Tarleton State at home and then traveled to Manhattan, Kansas and beat Kansas State. Thereafter, they opened conference play with a 45-38 overtime loss to North Texas, followed by a 28-6 beatdown at the hands of East Carolina. They followed those losses with wins over UAB and Charlotte...two schools who are a combined 0-6 in league play, one of which fired their head coach this week, and the other of which fired their athletic director this week. The Black Knights enter as a 9.5 point underdog to our Tulane Green Wave, who have beaten Tulsa and East Carolina to start conference play, following their first loss of the season in Oxford.

Army has been, as their .500 record would suggest, middle-of-the-road in a lot of categories. The Black Knights are 63rd nationally (out of 136 FBS schools) in points per play, 79th in points per game, 47th in 3rd down conversion percentage (41%), 64th in expected points added per pass and 82nd in expected points added per carry. They are, more notably, 33rd in punts per offensive score and 8th in 3rd down distance to go, needing an average of just 5.79 yards per 3rd down. Tulane's defense, adding to that particular worry, has the 124th best defense in terms of 3rd down distance faced by their opponents (Green Wave opponents are averaging 6.46 yards to go on 3rd down, and only 12 FBS teams have a shorter such average). The key, as usual, against Army, will be to win the early downs and force difficult distances on those critical late downs. And that's where the Black Knights have notably struggled in comparison to their 2024 results; on early downs (1st and 2nd) they have the 104th best expected points added average in the FBS.

Bryson Daily is gone, as mentioned above, and in his place sit a pair of uneven and inconsistent operators of the offense. In his absence, Dewayne Coleman and Cale Hellums have split time, seeing 238 and 218 snaps, respectively. Hellums has been the more effective runner, turning 109 carries into 454 yards (4.2 YPC) and 8 touchdowns, with 10 of those carries going for 10+ yards, while Coleman has run the ball 83 times for 310 yards (3.7 YPC) and 3 touchdowns. Both, however, are averaging a yards per carry after contact average above 2.0, and have forced over 12 missed tackles. On 46 dropbacks, Hellums has completed 17 of 28 passes (key note: 17 scrambles is quite a lot, on just 46 dropbacks) for 149 yards (5.3 yards per attempt) while taking just 1 sack. Coleman on the other hand has an adjusted completion percentage of 74.2%, and a yards per attempt average of 7.4 across his 40 dropbacks. By way of comparison, Coleman has scrambled just twice. Both quarterbacks have an average depth of target that exceeds 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and both have kept their "turnover worthy play" percentage below 5.0, per ProFootballFocus.

Hayden Reed and Noah Short are the primary options out of the backfield, in this option offense of the Black Knights. Short has carried the ball 52 times for 334 yards (6.9 yards per attempt) while Reed has 69 carries for 316 yards (4.6 yards per attempt). Analytically, Short has been the far more effective player, as his yards per carry after contact is about double that of Reed's, and a full yard higher than that of anyone else on the Army roster (3.40). On 52 carries he has 9 that have gone for more than 10 yards, while Reed, Carson Smith, and Briggs Bartosh have combined for 9 such carries on a total of 119 carries.

At first glance, the Army defense is one that appears to be balanced and average, against both the run and the pass; they are 66nd in yards per carry allowed (4.2) and 69th in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.9) in the FBS. However, a closer look at their success rates tell a a different story. The Black Knights' defensive success rate against the rush is right in the neighborhood that would be expected above, 67th in the country. Meanwhile, their defensive success rate against the pass plummets to 108th, nationally. Similarly, in terms of expected points added against, Army ranks 38th best in the country against the run, but just 90th against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 113 of 166 attempts (68.4%) and have a very solid quarterback rating of 95.3.

As with any Joe Craddock gameplan, there will certainly be a focus on running the ball, but my feeling is that there are going to be a number of chunk plays available to the Wave outside the hashes and down the field. Both the boundary and field corners of the Black Knights have passer ratings when targeted above 102, and on over 175 passing down snaps, Army has mustered a total of just 23 pressures and 3 sacks, good for a pressure rate of below 15%. With Tulane's offensive line seemingly at full strength, and the passing game beginning to hum with quarterback Jake Retzlaff, the path to a decisive victory, if such a path exists, is likely through the air on early downs.

Lastly, throughout the offseason, there was a common refrain we heard from both the coaches offices and the locker room. When examining a twelve-game schedule that included a road trip to Ole Miss, a home opener against a B1G team in Northwestern, nationally televised Thursday night opportunities in-conference against East Carolina and UTSA, etc. three games very clearly stood out and were circled; Duke, for obvious reasons, Memphis, for how Thanksgiving night went, and Army. There is a healthy awareness throughout the Wilson Center of the events of December 6, 2024, on the river in West Point, NY, and I would not expect this Green Wave team to get caught "looking ahead" to their second bye.

Prediction: Tulane 27-10