CFP First Round: Tulane @ Ole Miss Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

"Great moments are born from great opportunity, and that's what you have here tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here tonight. One game. If we played 'em ten times, they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight." - Herb Brooks, Miracle

Never in the 123 year history of Tulane football have we been this close to an undisputed national championship. Just four more wins separate Tulane from hoisting the CFP National Championship Trophy in Miami on January 19. Now, however likely or likely it is that the Green Wave win their next four games isn't a discussion for today.

Today is all about just one; the Ole Miss Rebels.

The same Ole Miss Rebels that held a 45-3 lead over Tulane three months ago, to the day, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Can this game be drastically different? Yes. What would it take for it to be so? Well, that's the question.

Let's start with the obvious. Lane Kiffin was the Ole Miss head coach on September 20, and the Rebels were 3-0 with 2 wins over SEC opponents already, at the time. I was in Oxford that weekend and the vibes were immaculate. The locals felt like they were on the verge of entering the upper echelon of SEC programs, and had the expectation of advancing to the College Football Playoff, at a minimum. "If we don't make the College Football Playoff this year (with 8 home games and 9 of 12 regular season games in the state of Mississippi), it would be a bust," Walker Jones, the Director of the Grove Collective told me on September 18, 2025.

Three months later, Kiffin is gone and the Rebels, like Tulane, are trying to chart their course forward in a manner that they feel gives them the best chance to maintain their level of success that they've found over the past few seasons. Like Tulane, Ole Miss promoted from within, naming Defensive Coordinator Pete Golding their head coach, just a few weeks ago. Unlike Tulane and Will Hall, Golding's tenure as the Rebels head coach starts right now. Jon Sumrall, in contrast, has remained behind to finish out this CFP run with the Wave. As pointed out by my colleague Jimmy Ordeneaux on the FTW Cast, Golding has operated from the booth, as the defensive coordinator and play-caller. Reportedly, he still intends to call the defensive plays today, but from field level, while attempting to acclimate and juggle his new game day responsibilities as a head coach...during a College Football Playoff game...in front of a sold-out 64,000 seat stadium...on national television. Ole Miss' only loss of the season was a 43-35 defeat in Athens to the No. 3 seed Georgia, so, you know, no pressure, Pete.

Two weeks ago, I politely raised the question that perhaps North Texas' offensive numbers and ranks (they were 1st out of 136 FBS schools in many categories and top 5 in others) were a bit overstated, as they had played a joke of a non-conference schedule, and somehow managed to avoid Tulane, Memphis and East Carolina, during the regular season. I will not be making that argument today, with respect to Ole Miss' ability to achieve some of these rankings against a significantly harder schedule. Out of 136 FBS teams, the Rebels rank 12th in points per game, 17th in points per play, 2nd in yards per game, 8th in fewest punts per offensive school, 7th in available yards gained percentage, 23rd in early downs (1st/2nd) expected points added and 47th in late downs (3rd/4th) expected points added. They are 11th in net expected points added per play on offense, 11th in expected points added per dropback, and 9th in offensive success rate in the passing game. However, their rushing attack has not been as efficient, ranking 56th in expected points added per carry and 96th in offensive success rate in the rushing phase.

Quarerback Trinidad Chambliss finished 8th in the Heisman voting this year for a reason. The Ferris State transfer, who wasn't even the opening day starter, has an adjusted completion percentage of 74.1%, has made just 7 turnover worthy-throws across his 365 dropbacks (even more impressive, on 75 dropbacks when pressured, he's logged just 1 turnover-worthy throw). In September, he was fantastic when blitzed by the Green Wave, completing 9 of his 13 attempts for 146 yards (11.2 yards per attempt) with 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 0 turnover-worthy plays, 0 sacks taken, 3 "big-time throws," and an adjusted completion percentage of 81.8%. We shouldn't feel too bad, as I'll represent to you that his numbers against the blitz all season mirror that stat line pretty closely. But that begs the question; if he's so good against the blitz, how are we going to get pressure, this afternoon? Because Chambliss' completion percentage plummets to just 50.9% when pressured. In all 11 wins this season, the Green Wave have registered at least 11 pressures (even against Army, who only dropped back to pass 17 times), and most times have eclipsed 20. In their two losses? Tulane has registered 8 pressures (against Ole Miss) and 6 pressures (against UTSA). We have spoken at length all year about the talent on this defensive line, the depth of talent, the athleticism, etc. That group is going to need to play well against a formidable SEC offensive line, today, and is going to need to find a way to generate quick pressures on obvious passing downs. Remember, disruption is production.

Two areas where Tulane has been strong this year, and where they will need to be excellent today. First, the hidden yardage embedded in starting field position. Tulane has ranked 1st in the FBS since September in net starting field position (Green Wave opponents are starting possessions at their own 26 yard line, on average, and the Tulane offense is starting possessions at their own 34 yard line, on average). Ole Miss, on the other hand, ranks 78th in net field position, (Rebel opponents are starting possessions at their own 27 yard line, on average, and the Ole Miss offense is starting possessions at their own 27 yard line, on average). Tulane figures to need that to again be a strength, today, and would do well to steal a possession or two, which leads me into area number two; true turnover differential. When these teams played in September, there were no charted turnovers until very deep into the fourth quarter, but Tulane turned the ball over on downs multiple times. I submit to you that for purposes of today, at least, we should count turnovers on downs as turnovers, and that the Wave need to be +2 or better in the turnover differential. Ole Miss ranks just 78th in turnover margin per game (-0.1 on average) while Tulane again ranks 12th (+0.8 on average).

Offensively, Tulane should have opportunities to run the ball. Ole Miss ranks 132nd in expected points added per rush, defensively, and 130th in defensive success rate against the run. Even in the first meeting in September, Tulane ran for 106 yards on 19 carries in the first half alone (5.57 yards per carry) with zero negative runs or runs for no gain. To remind you how much the offense has changed, Arnold Barnes led the Green Wave in carries and Jamauri McClure had just 3. The passing offense, even against weaker opponents like South Alabama and Tulsa, wasn't humming in September, to put it nicely. There were very, very few on-schedule plays made, and even when they were, there was rarely an opportunity for an explosive after the catch. Since UTSA, increased focus on the quick game and the screen game have helped open the field for the Tulane passing attack, both vertically and horizontally. Put simply, there is very little about this Green Wave offense that operates as it did on September 20. And did I mention that all-conference left tackle Derrick Graham didn't play in the first meeting, forcing Shadre Hurst to shift to left tackle from left guard and putting Elijah Baker in quite the environment for first career start? Well, if you're looking for reasons to be optimistic that today will end differently, put that one on your list, too.

Regardless of what actors masquerading as college football insiders or media members say on ESPN, Tulane deserves to be here. Tulane is playing with house money and Tulane has earned the opportunity to be here. Both things can be and are true. RMFW.

Prediction: Tulane 37-34