Charlotte Preview
By Jake Weinstock
When the Tulane football schedule was released at the end of February, the Friday October 30 trip to North Carolina to play the Charlotte 49ers did not feel like a “must win” or a setting that perhaps the Tulane faithful would be uncertain about, heading in, but with a 3-4 (1-2) start, that is where we all find ourselves, now. Tulane was unable to overcome six turnovers including fumbles on three consecutive first half possessions (including one inside the UTSA 25 and another inside the UTSA 5) last week, in a deflating 42-19 loss to the Roadrunners, who snapped a ten-game winning streak at Yulman Stadium that dated back to 2024.
In both starts under true freshman Trace Johnson, the Green Wave have had dramatically different results on the scoreboard, but actually finished quite similarly in yards per play, with an average of 5.56 (47th percentile) against Memphis and then a 5.50 average against UTSA (46th percentile). Johnson will look to build on an uneven performance, last week, wherein he was 15/26 in the first half for 196 yards, and then just 9/18 for another 69 yards, in the second, where he took all three of his sacks and threw both of his interceptions. That will sound like criticism of the freshman, but rather, in my view it was more a function of game-script (trailing on the scoreboard) and the lack of support he received from the more veteran players around him, than anything. In the FTW Cast Postgame Show, sponsored by Veron Bice Law Firm, I expressed that my frustration as much as anything was that the quarterback performed well enough to give us a chance to win the football game, and we simply didn’t.
Johnson was solid when kept clean against UTSA, finishing 21/34 for 245 yards with a 61.8% completion percentage, 7.2 yards per attempt average against an average depth of target of 8.9 yards per attempt (75.8% adjusted completion percentage when the four drops are counted as completions), though he did invite 4 pressures that were attributable to him, and not his pass protection, per PFF. When pressured, he was 3/10 for 20 yards, with the 3 aforementioned sacks. Through 7 games, Charlotte has generated 75 pressures and 14 sacks, neither of which is an impressive figure. The Green Wave offensive line is considerably banged up, and now has lost Ryan Mickow to injury, but this should hopefully be a front that they can handle, all the same.
Tulane will look to take steps in the right direction offensively against a Charlotte defense that out of 138 FBS schools ranks 135th in points per game allowed (40.2), 128th in points per play against, 91st in yards per carry allowed,135th in passer rating allowed, 131st in yards per pass attempt allowed, 125th in expected points added per pass against, 90th in expected points added per rush against, 135th in success rate per pass against, and 115th in success rate per carry against. The Green Wave have had a higher success rate on pass attempts in both Johnson starts than their season average, so hopefully that continues to trend in the right direction as they now square off with a Charlotte team near the bottom of the league instead of two opponents at or near the top, in UTSA and Memphis.
The 49ers are coming off of their first win of the season in Philadelphia, nearly two weeks ago, when they upset Temple. They’ll be playing this game at home, off of a bye and 13 days rest, while the Green Wave are obviously on the road, on 6 days rest. Do not be entirely reliant upon the Charlotte record (1-6, 1-2) because this is just the third game that they’ll have quarterback Conner Harrell under center. Harrell was the 49ers quarterback to start the 2025 season before suffering a season-ending ACL/MCL tear in late September of last year. His start three weeks ago against North Texas was his first since returning from injury (though he did play off the bench against Ole Miss and ULL, earlier this year). In two starts, he has completed 38 of 53 passes (71.7% completion percentage for 499 yards (9.4 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Across those 53 attempts he’s made just one “turnover-worthy throw” and it was not on either of the 2 interceptions, so do not be fooled by those, either. He is taking a sack on 22% of his dropbacks, which is high, and bodes well for a Green Wave front looking to recapture some effectiveness after totaling 13 pressures and 2 sacks against UTSA, following totals of 18 and 7 against Memphis.
Look for Harrell to most-frequently target Jaden Barnes (41 receptions on 60 targets for 409 yards), Jaylen Hampton (22 receptions on 33 targets for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns), and Derrick Eley (20 receptions on 30 targets for 364 yards and 3 touchdowns). No other 49er has a target total above 10, through 7 games. Barnes is often targeted within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and has been very efficient, with a yards per route run average above 2.0 (2.11).
Charlotte has not been able to run the ball with much success, this season, as they rank 119th in yards per carry at 3.3, 123rd in expected points added per carry, and 124th in success rate on the ground. However, Harrell adds another dimension there off of the read option, and was effective in the red zone using that concept against Temple, scoring twice in their 38-31 win over the Owls. When it’s not Harrell keeping the ball, expect Khamani Alexander and Henry Rutledge to carry the load. Alexander has turned 55 carries in 236 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Rutledge has turned 52 carries into 331 years in what has been a pretty even timeshare. While Rutledge has been the more impressive runner, as the statistics would indicate, given that the 49ers have been trailing so often, it’s been hard to keep him on the field; Alexander is both the better pass protector and receiver.
Despite getting Harrell back, despite being off of a bye, despite being at home, and getting the win against Temple, this is a Charlotte team that had lost 15-straigh FBS games before that one. If Tulane hopes to generate some real momentum as the calendar turns from October to November, they obviously need this one, and frankly they need it to be comfortable.
Prediction: 31-13, Tulane
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