Charlotte @ Tulane Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

Tonight, No. 24 Tulane (9-2, 6-1) seeks to earn their 40th regular season win over the last four seasons, and 42nd win overall since the start of 2022 when they host the visiting Charlotte 49ers (1-10, 0-7) tonight at Yulman Stadium (6:30 p.m. CT, ESPNU, 106.7 The Ticket)

I'll be honest.

I never thought I would write those words.

Late in the 2021 season, in which Tulane finished 2-10, I feared that perhaps we had watched a program collapse. After reaching a bowl game in the three years that preceded it (2018, 2019, 2020), there was a ton of optimism heading into the 2021 campaign, especially given that the Wave lost three games with zeros on the clock en route to their 6-5 regular season finish during the 2020 Covid season.

"We will upgrade."

That's what the then-Tulane Athletic Director texted me in December of 2020 as news was breaking that Will Hall (Tulane's offensive coordinator from 2019-2020) would be leaving to take the Southern Miss job, at a moment when it was already known to the AD that Chip Long would be the replacement. Of course, the brief Chip Long tenure as offensive coordinator was an upgrade in the same way that the Ben Affleck was an upgrade on Christian Bale as Batman, which is to say that it was an utter disaster. There was infighting and finger-pointing, there was berating and name-calling, and the losses stacked.

But then, there was a mini-reset button. Certain people were escorted off the bus, certain people rededicated their efforts, certain people altered their approach, and certain external volunteers stepped up. And what transpired was the largest single season improvement in the history of college football. Tulane won ten more games in 2022 (12-2) than they had in 2021, and finished No. 9 in the AP Poll.

And since? Everyone who values this program has continued to step up and do their 1/11th to try and maintain that level of excellence, from the third floor in the Wilson Center, to the westside bleachers at Yulman, to the tents on Berger Family Lawn, to you, reading this because you subscribe, which is a sign that you care and want this program to continue to succeed.

Forgive me for being dramatic but these last four years have been on my mind a lot, this week, what with it being Thanksgiving and with a lot of noise out there on Twitter/X about what comes next. The New Orleans Saints have gone 23-38 since Sean Payton left. They've not won double-digit games since Drew Brees retired five years ago.

But at Tulane? That 41-12 run across four seasons that we're on? The one that after tonight should involve four-consecutive Conference Championship Game appearances, three of which will have been at Yulman? That's been accomplished across the tenures of two different head coaches, two different athletic directors, three different quarterbacks, three different leading rushers, four different leading receivers.

The rollercoaster has been stressful, challenging, and rewarding. In 2021 I wondered whether we should move on from the head coach, and then a year later I shed a tear after storming the field following an improbable conference championship, and then a year after that I left Yulman Stadium feeling like the world had ended, knowing we'd lost the Conference Championship Game, our shot at another NY6 Bowl, and the head coach, all in one night. How could we not lose our momentum? Well, Tulane "hired the next guy," who is looking to improve to 19-5 in the regular season, tonight.

It's always been the case in college football that the players and the coaches change, and while I know that nowadays they change faster than they used to (as do the uniforms, rules, and conference affiliations), I'm very grateful for those that have been a part of Tulane's football journey, for those yet to come, and that you've let me come along for the ride, with you. This has been a remarkably fun and fulfilling volunteer role and I can't wait to continue to see what comes next, with you, starting tonight...

The first year of the Tim Albin era has not gone well. The 49ers entered the season with the lowest over/under win total (2.5) in the American, and with one game to go, the under has already cashed. Charlotte made a good hire, I believe, but they are significantly under-resourced and under-supported in this league. Their lone win was a seven-point victory over FCS Monmouth, and are therefore 0-10 against the FBS in 2025.

Out of 136 FBS teams, the 49ers offense ranks 113th in expected points added per dropback, 136th in expected points added per rush, 135th in available yards gained (i.e. if you get the ball on your own 20 yard line, there are 80 yards available to be gained on that particular drive), 131st in offensive success rate, 127th in defensive success rate, 134th in net expected points added per drive, 131st in net starting field position (Tulane continues to rank 1st in that one, by the way). Charlotte is 133rd in points per play, 134th in points per game, 133rd in yards per play, and 133rd in yards per game. Defensively, the 49ers are allowing the 14th most yards per play, the 6th most points per game, and the 4th most yards per game to their opponents.

Aside from UMass, who finished the season 0-12 last night, there is a strong argument that Charlotte is the second-worst team in all of the FBS. This should not be a competitive football game, and my continued hope is that the Wave are able to get a number of starters some rest in the second half, as North Texas has a one-day headstart on Tulane in both prep and recovery time for the Conference Championship Game, as they smashed Temple on Friday.

Prediction: 49-7 Tulane