Conference Championship Game Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

And so here we are...

Mere hours from the biggest game in the 123 year history of the Tulane football program.

Our No. 20 Green Wave (10-2, 7-1) will play host to the No. 24 North Texas Mean Green tonight at Yulman Stadium (7:00 p.m. CT, ABC, 106.7 The Ticket) in what is undeniably a College Football Playoff "Play-In" game. Both teams sit just 5 wins away from winning the National Championship, as the winner will unquestionably advance to the field of 12. Never before has Tulane been this close. Not in 1998, not in 2024, not in 2023, and not even in 2022, when the Green Wave defeated Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl and finished ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll. Because of the expansion of the College Football Playoff, there is finally a path for a team like this (or North Texas) to win out and win it all.

North Texas, standing in Tulane's way, ranks (out of 136 FBS schools) 1st in points per game (46.4), 1st in points per play, 1st in yards per game (516), 1st in yards per play (7.4), 2nd in fewest punts per offensive score, 20th in 3rd down conversion percentage, 3rd in yards per pass attempt (9.9), 14th in yards per carry (5.4), 3rd in expected points added per dropback, 5th in expected points added per rush, 3rd in net expected points added per play, 1st in offensive success rate, 2nd in early down (1st and 2nd down) expected points added, 15th in late down (3rd and 4th) expected points added, 1st in available yards gained percentage, and 4th in turnover margin per game (+1.1). Counterpoint: "They ain't played us yet." In fact, even the most devout North Texas fan would concede there's been some stat-padding in blowout wins over bad programs. While Tulane faced three Power 4 teams, beating two of whom (Duke and Northwestern, both of which are bowl-eligible), North Texas' non-confernce schedule consisted of Lamar, South Alabama, Washington State and Western Michigan.

North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker has been sensational, especially when kept clean/when not pressured, this season. When he's had a clean pocket, he has completed 76.5% of his passes, thrown 24 touchdowns against just 1 interception, averaged 10.4 yards per attempt, has a turnover-worthy play percentage of just 1.8%. In other words, he has 5 turnover-worthy plays across 314 dropbacks when kept clean.

However, on his 99 dropbacks when he's been pressured? He has the same number of 5 turnover-worthy plays. His 92.5 (out of 100) grade by PFF when kept clean plummets to 61.7. His 76.5% completion percentage when clean? It drops off the table to 50.0%, too, when pressured. He's averaging a full 2.0 less yards per attempt when pressured, too. To win the game tonight, the Green Wave defensive front will have to play physical and play well. Against UTSA we mustered just 6 pressures. In each of the 4 games since, we have ranged from 19 to 30 pressures. That, without question, is the key to slowing this North Texas offense. The Green Wave will certainly need to tackle well, as the pass catchers for the Mean Green have done a nice job of turning short-to-intermediate completions into explosives, when the first man misses. A repeat of the tackling from either the UTSA or Memphis game would spell catastrophe for the Green Wave defense, for sure.

Further, as Jimmy Ordeneaux and I discussed on the FTW Cast: Conference Championship Pregame, sponsored by Scandurro & Layrisson, LLC (https://soundcloud.com/user-774038550/ftw-cast-conference-championship-pregame-sponsored-by-scandurro-layrisson-llc?si=2e79368de5054367ad4832dbdfa3a584&utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing), Tulane cannot allow North Texas to set the pace and control the tempo of this football game. If both teams end up with 12-14 possessions, it's hard to see Tulane getting enough stops to keep up. It's a simple math problem. Let's say that North Texas gets 14 possessions, and Tulane forces 2 field goals, 2 turnovers, and 5 punts, which feels like a lot to ask against this particular offense. That still equates to 6 touchdowns (42 points) plus the 2 field goals, totaling 48 points for the Mean Green. Conversely, if the Wave can limit each team to a more manageable 10 possessions by being efficient on late downs, by not going no huddle/tempo, by turning red zone trips into touchdowns, in my view, we stand a far better chance. The idea would be to limit North Texas' offense margin for error, not to expand it.

Mestemaker has averaged a time-to-throw of 2.62 seconds (from snap to release) on the season, which is fast, but certainly not as fast as Caden Veltkamp, Kaitin Houser or Owen McCown (FAU, ECU, UTSA, respectively). It will be interesting to see how the Mean Green approach this one, because they have thrived in the intermediate and deep areas of the field. But obviously those longer developing routes take time. For context, here are Mestemaker's time-to-throw averages, separated by how far down the field he's targeting an eligible receiver:

Behind line of scrimmage: 1.85 seconds

0-9 yards beyond line of scrimmage: 2.29 seconds

10-19 yards beyond line of scrimmage: 2.74 seconds

20+ yards beyond line of scrimmage: 3.32 seconds

Even Memphis' Brendon Lewis, who had one of the five slowest time-to-throw averages in the FBS heading into their November 7 matchup with Tulane, ended up with a time-to-throw average in that game of 2.56 seconds from snap to release. In english, out of 110 qualifying FBS quarterbacks, Lewis' season average put him 105th. But if he'd had his average from the Tulane game alone across the whole season? He'd rank as the nation's 15th fastest. It's the UTSA model -- American Conference teams have tried to get the ball out of their hands quickly against this Tulane front, to varying degrees of success, over the second half of the season. Will North Texas follow suit? Or will they risk pressure waiting for longer-developing shots to materialize? It's a fascinating game-within-the-game that I'm excited to observe.

On offense, Tulane can and should run the ball well on the Mean Green. North Texas ranks 134th out of 136 in defensive success rate against the rush and 131st out of 136 in expected points added against, per rush. Tulane is going to need Javin Gordon and Jamauri McClure in the ground game, tonight, and if Jake Retzlaff is healthy enough to do it (knee brace and all), him too.

Prediction: 38-35, Tulane