East Carolina @ Tulane Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

Both the Tulane Green Wave (4-1, 1-0) and the visiting East Carolina Pirates (3-2, 1-0) enter tonight's matchup (6:30 pm CT, ESPN, 106.7 The Ticket) off of a bye week, and both enter off of blowout wins to start their respective American Conference portions of the schedule. The Green Wave beat Tulsa 31-14 in Week 5, while the Pirates smashed Army 28-6. After losing 10 of 12 to East Carolina from 1999 through 2014, the Green Wave have since beaten the Pirates in 5 of the last 6, most recently in Greenville in 2023. None of that matters, of course, as neither head coach was with their respective program even just two years ago.

The Pirates program has been completely revitalized in an incredibly short period of time under new head coach Blake Harrell. In short, Mike Houston had been the East Carolina head coach since 2019, and slowly built the program back up to reputability. In 2021 and 2022, the team earned bowl births, but then fell to 2-10 in 2023. The Pirates then started the 2024 season 3-4, and Mike Houston was fired on October 20, following losses to Charlotte (by 30 points) and Army. Then-Defensive Coordinator Blake Harrell was named the interim head coach and earned the permanent job after the Pirates started 4-0 under his watch, ultimately finishing 5-1 after he took over, for a final season record of 8-5.

In 2025, East Carolina sits at 3-2 (1-0), but played NC State close in week 1, falling by a touchdown, and obliterated Coastal Carolina 38-0 and the aforementioned Army 28-6. There's certainly a feeling, echoed by Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall in his weekly press conference, that this is one of the better teams in the American Conference, even though USF, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, and to a lesser extent, Tulane, are taking up all of the conversational oxygen at this point. After the five American Conference teams mentioned above, the Pirates have the next best odds to win the league, per VegasInsider, at 12/1. There's then a cliff, as UTSA is the next closest school at 35/1.

Defensively, the Pirates have the 13th best scoring defense in the entire FBS (136 schools) and have allowed the 11th fewest touchdowns per game to their opponents. Both are high-water marks for the American Conference, through six weeks. The rest of their defensive metrics are mostly impressive but not elite. For example, they are 43rd nationally in yards per play allowed (5.1), 39th in third-down conversion percentage allowed, 50th in yards per carry allowed (3.9) and 59th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Some of those numbers are misleading, however, but there's certainly some inflation when games are out-of-hand. For example, the Pirates are 50th in yards per carry allowed but 7th (!) in expected points added allowed, per rush.

That being said, East Carolina has been slightly vulnerable between the 20s, but their success keeping opponents' scores down has been a byproduct of a few key areas of success. First, their third-down defense has been strong in large part because of their success on early downs and forcing opponents into longer distances on third down. Opponents of the Pirates have faced an average third down distance of 8.3 yards, this season, which is the 9th highest such average in the FBS. Further, opponents of the Pirates have accumulated an average starting field position of their own 25 yard line, which is the 17th worst starting field position for opposing offenses. East Carolina is forcing 1.8 turnovers per game, which is tied for 34th best in the country, and they have allowed just 12 trips to the redzone through 5 games, which is tied for the 10th lowest such figure nationally, and their opponents have only turned 5 of those 12 visits into touchdowns.

The Pirates offense has had loads of success through the air, as they are 32nd nationally in yards per pass attempt, but just 114th in yards per rush attempt. Quarterback Katin Houser has an adjusted completion percentage of 76.2%, has a yards per attempt average of 8.4, and an average depth of target of 9.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. All of which are impressive, but perhaps not as impressive as his pressure-to-sack ratio. Despite being pressured 46 times through 5 games, he has only taken 4 sacks, and has only scrambled 5 times. In other words, he has been masterful at getting the ball out of his hands quickly, with an average time-to-throw of 2.09 seconds from snap to release. Among the 154 FBS quarterbacks who have taken at least 20% of their team's offensive snaps, where does Houser's 2.09 seconds average rank, you ask? First, is the answer. Do not misunderstand or presume that he only throws quick hitters. Some of the Pirates' best work has come targeting a specific pair of receivers in the intermediate (10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) and deep (20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage) areas of the field. ProFootballFocus has given Houser a 90.6 grade on throws 20+ yards beyond the LOS.

Hauling in these passes, for the most part, have been Anthony Smith (44 targets, 28 receptions, 352 yards, 1 touchdown) and Yannick Smith (32 targets, 26 receptions, 338 yards and 2 touchdowns) have been a dynamite duo for the Pirates. They have average depths of target of 13.4 and 12.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, respectively, both are above a 2.0 yards per route run average, and will rarely see time in the slot, lining up out wide 88.8% and 96.6% of the time, respectively. This is going to be a serious challenge for Joker Johnson and for the corners rotating in at the field position. As we mentioned, the Pirates have not had much success running the ball, but their most successful runner to date has been Landon Montgomery and his 4.1 yards per carry average across 51 attempts.

Prediction: I think this one is going to be a little more high scoring than one would expect, sizing up the two defenses. I have a feeling that both teams are bound to hit on some explosives that coupled with turnovers, will likely turn the tide, tonight.

Tulane 31-24