FAU @ Tulane Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

After taking down No. 22 Memphis last Friday night at the Liberty Bowl to improve to 7-2 (4-1), and win their first game against an AP ranked opponent since the Cotton Bowl in the process, Tulane now finds themselves in a five-way tie in the loss column atop the American Conference standings with USF, North Texas, Navy, and East Carolina. The Green Wave now play host to Florida Atlantic (4-5, 3-3) for homecoming at Yulman Stadium, where Tulane is a perfect 4-0 on the season, and will be looking for their 40th win since the start of 2022. 3:00 p.m. CT, ESPN+, 106.7 The Ticket.

The Owls have plenty to play for, as 2 wins over their final 3 games would result in a 6-6 finish and their first bowl berth since 2020. First-year head coach Zach Kittley has demonstrated clear progress; as mentioned, FAU has started 3-3 in league play this season. Prior to his arrival, the Owls had dropped 11 of their last 12 American conference games, going back to a 4-game losing streak to close the 2023 season, which included Tulane’s 24-8 win in Boca Raton, in November of that year.

The Owls play with speed and tempo, and are averaging 78.3 offensive snaps per game, which is the 3rd most in the FBS, this season. They’ll attempt to stretch the number of possessions to about 14-15 per team, per game, betting that their offense will outlast that of an opponent’s, and simply outscore the opposition. Of note, the Wave have played with a bit more tempo themselves, since the season’s first bye in early-October. It remains to be seen whether Tulane will be interested in playing that particular game with the Owls, or whether they’ll throttle back and huddle a bit more.

In either case, expect Tulane offensive coordinator Joe Craddock to lean on the running game, as the Owls have been beyond poor at stopping the run, in 2025. Opponents are averaging 5.0 yards per carry against FAU, this season, which is the 119th lowest such average allowed. The Owls have the 133rd best defense (out of 136 FBS schools) in expected points added per rush, against, and they have the 127th best defense in terms of rushing success rate, against. Complicating matters for FAU, we hope, is that they rank 86th in net starting field position (Tulane ranks 1st in the FBS and has for over a month, now) and 135th in turnover margin per game. In other words, the Owls average a turnover differential of -1.5, per game.

FAU has been unable to run the ball with any level of consistency. Like their defense, their offense also ranks 133rd in the FBS in expected points added per rush, while ranking 134th in success rate, per rush. As a result, they’ve moved to a plan where you’ll see the pass game used as an extension of the run; there should be a number of short targets at or behind the line of scrimmage, including but not limited to tunnel and bubble screens. The Owls have run for just 3.1 yards per carry, which is the 126th highest average in the nation.

FAU quarterback Caden Veltkamp is having a fine season, but he’s also questionable for today’s game, after suffering a shoulder injury in the 4th quarter of last week’s 40-21 win over Tulsa. Here’s what Kittley said on Tuesday regarding the situation, per The Palm Beach Post:

“I still foresee him playing,” Kittley said. “But we’re having to monitor him and be smart with him throughout the week.” Apparently the injury was originally suffered in week 5, on September 27, and it’s been an ongoing, but manageable, issue, until the hit last week that exacerbated the pain and forced him from the game.

“Since then, we’ve been kind of battling this a little bit,” Kittley said. “He hasn’t been 100 percent every day since then. But he’s been able to practice a little bit here and there, and he’s done a good job. This is just a little setback for him.”

Veltkamp is completing 66.2% of his passes (74.1% adjusted completion percentage), and is averaging 7.0 yards per attempt with an average depth of target of 7.8 yards down the field. Defending the quick release passing game has clearly been an issue for Tulane over the past two weeks, as both UTSA’s Owen McCown and Memphis’ Brendon Lewis found great success in getting rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds. For the season, Veltkamp averages a time to throw (snap of the ball to release) of 2.47 seconds, which is the 5th fastest such average in the FBS, among the 107 quarterbacks that have taken at least 50% of their team’s snaps.

If Veltkamp is unable to start, or is able to start but unable to finish the game, the Owls will turn to 7th (!) year backup quarterback Zach Gibson, and his 814 career dropbacks. Gibson has shown a significantly higher propensity to take sacks, as his career pressure-to-sack percentage is 25.2%, which is about 8-15 percentage points higher than what you’d want. Regardless of who’s taking the snaps for FAU, expect wide receiver Easton Messer to be heavily targeted. Through 9 games, Messer already has 100 targets and 75 receptions, though his average yards per reception is a relatively low 9.6 (as I said, they’ll try to use the quick/short passing game as an extension of, or in place of, the running game).

While I don’t doubt that FAU should have some success throwing the ball today, regardless of who plays quarterback, I’m struggling to envision the Owls considerably slowing/stopping this Tulane offense, absent an onslaught of turnovers and a return of the red zone woes that plagued this team in October. FAU has just the 120th best defense in terms of points per play against, 83rd in yards per play against, 119th in yards per carry against, 119th in punts per offensive score, and 110th in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed.

Prediction: 42-21 Tulane