Kansas State Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

For the third time in five seasons, Tulane (1-1) will face off with Kansas State (2-0) this morning, in what is the third and final game of a three-game scheduling contract between the two universities. Tulane enters having come-from-behind three times to beat South Alabama at home, 28-24, following a 17-3 road loss to Duke to open the season. Kansas State, on the other hand, beat Nicholls State 71-3 and then beat Washington State 34-7. As pointed out by our good friend Cory Agular, the Wildcats have not allowed an offensive touchdown through two games.

I will admit it has been challenging to determine how good Kansas State is, given who they have played, to date. They are clearly good, they're clearly very good, but are the contender to win the Big XII good or not, it's hard to say. They are not yet ranked in the AP top 25, and as of this week were only receiving one such vote to be in, and while they are a 20.5 point favorite against the Green Wave (which may be more of an indication of what the market things of Tulane, who is 0-2 against the point spread), the Wildcats have just the fifth best odds to win the Big XII.

Kansas State is in their first season under new head coach Collin Klein. You may remember Klein from his playing days, when he was an excellent quarterback for these same Wildcats in 2011-2012, under legendary head coach Bill Snyder. Klein was an assistant for Kansas State for years, and was most notably the offensive coordinator in 2022, when the Green Wave rode into Manhattan and won as a 16.5 point underdog en route to winning the conference and the Cotton Bowl, that year. Kansas State had a fine season, themselves, winning the Big XII and then appearing in the Sugar Bowl.

Klein was asked by a reporter this week if the way that 2022 game ended sticks in the back of his mind. Recall that Tulane won 17-10 and the Kansas State offense was rather anemic. Klein’s response: “No doubt.” He missed the 2024 matchup between these schools at Yulman Stadium, as he spent 2023-2024 as the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M before returning to Manhattan in December of 2025 as Kansas State’s new head coach, following the retirement of Chris Klieman.

Klein returns third-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson, who is a dynamic runner, is excellent at avoiding sacks (through his career he has only been sacked on about 9% of the dropbacks under which he is pressured), and making plays outside of structure with his legs, when things break down. If he can be forced into the pocket, Tulane should have a good chance of avoiding the explosives in the passing game that the Wildcats have been seeking. Out of all 68 Power Four Conference schools, despite their 2-0 start and 105 points scored, Kansas State ranks dead last in explosive play rate via the pass at under 8%. They certainly have not yet needed explosives in either the passing game or the running game, but we hope to be in the type of game today where they need one and can’t generate it.

Johnson is a career 58.8% completion percentage player, with an average of 7.1 yards per attempt, and an average depth of target of 9.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, across 922 career dropbacks, all at Kansas State. He was remarkably poor when pressured in 2025, as he completed 37.5% of his throws under duress and averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt. Notably, his average depth of target skyrocketed to 12.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, meaning that when pressured, you can expect him not to dump off to an outlet throw, but instead to seek the chunk play down the field.

As a team, the Wildcats are averaging 7.4 yards per carry through two games, and 3.1 yards per carry after contact, which means that Kansas State ballcarriers are averaging a gain of 4.3 yards per carry before they are touched by a defender for the first time, across 84 carries. This opponent represents a significant challenge for Tulane, in each phase, but perhaps none more so than containing the Wildcats’ rushing attack, just two weeks after Nate Sheppard and Duke were able to move the ball on the ground at-will. Of those 84 carries as a team, 22 have gone for 10 yards or more. Klein and the offensive staff do a nice job of mixing in both zone and gap scheme designs, so it’s hard to key on one style or the other. Rodney Fields, Jr. has been their lead back through two games, totaling 206 yards on 27 carries (7.6 per attempt) which has resulted in 2 touchdowns.

On the other side of the ball, after not allowing a touchdown to either Nicholls State or Washington State, the Kansas State defense is top ten (and in some cases top one) in just about every statistical category that you can think of. Their best player is probably Wendell Gregory, a speed-rusher off the edge who was named to the Big XII Preseason All-Conference team in July. He will need to be accounted for on each and every snap, and perhaps we can try to run outside zone right at him in order to slow him down a bit, in the passing game.  

Overall, this is very likely the best team on Tulane’s schedule. That was true in the preseason and I still think that’s true, today. Kansas State 31-21