BY JAKE WEINSTOCK
"When one door closes another door opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the ones which open for us." - Alexander Graham Bell
On Friday, Tulane running back Makhi Hughes entered the transfer portal. Over the past two seasons, Hughes has totaled 2,776 yards on 520 carries (5.3 yards per attempt), 22 touchdowns and zero (0) fumbles. Across those 520 carries, he has averaged an astounding 3.81 yards per attempt after contact. Justifiably and deservedly, he has been named to the All-AAC First-Team in both 2023 and 2024. He has absolutely been the offensive catalyst on each of the 2023 and 2024 Green Wave offenses, teams that had very real levels of success, finishing 11-3 (8-1) and 9-5 (7-2).
As we are all aware, the Wave ended this season on a disappointing 3-game skid after starting 9-2 (7-0), having already climbed out of a 1-2 mid-September hole. Tulane played seven different opponents that finished within the top 50 of Chris Vannini's 1-134 ranking; Kansas State, Oklahoma, ULL, Navy, Memphis, Army and Florida. Against those opponents, Tulane finished 2-5. Against opponents from P4 conferences, the Green Wave finished 0-3 (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Florida).
In 2023, under a different coaching staff, with different coordinators, and a different quarterback, the Green Wave went 0-3 against schools that are currently in a P4 league (Ole Miss, SMU, Virginia Tech, though obviously SMU was in the AAC, at the time).
But in 2022, just one year prior, our Green Wave went 5-1 against teams presently in a P4 league (Kansas State, UCF x2, Cincinnati, Houston and Southern California). They ended that season by winning three-straight games against Top 25 opponents. Since the Cotton Bowl, Tulane is 0-5 against Top 25 opponents (2023: Ole Miss, SMU. 2024: Kansas State, Oklahoma, Army). We cannot solely defeat the Charlottes and Temples of the world in order to achieve our goals.
In short, in order to fulfill Jon Sumrall's vision of making it to the College Football Playoff, in order to win this league again, in order to walk off the field against Memphis and not feel as though they were significantly more athletic than us, we need to keep pushing the ceiling of what is possible in terms of our talent level. No one wants to see Makhi Hughes leave. But in life, when one door closes, sometimes, another opens. I would implore Jon Sumrall and his staff to seek ball carriers and skill position weapons who are explosive, because no offense can ever have enough of that.
In 2023, for example, Makhi Hughes averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but against Ole Miss, he rushed for 87 yards on 22 attempts (4.0 yards per) and against SMU he rushed for 44 yards on 11 attempts (4.0 yards per). In 2024, he again averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but in Norman, against the Sooners, he ran for 71 yards on 19 attempts (3.7 yards per). Against Memphis, he mustered 15 yards on 9 attempts (1.7 yards per) and against Florida he ran for 29 yards on 8 attempts (3.6 yards per). Even against Navy and USF, games in which he scored two touchdowns in, each, he did not exceed 3.7 yards per carry. He did not top 65 yards in either the 2023 Conference Championship Game or the 2024 Conference Championship Game.
Whether he changes his mind and ends up back at Tulane or not, in 2025, we must recapture explosivity and high-level play at the running back position (among all others) must translate to games against top tier competition. Tulane plays Northwestern, Duke, and Ole Miss in September of 2025, three P4 programs. Army comes to Yulman Stadium and the Green Wave travel to play the Tigers of Memphis on the road. Makhi Hughes' "breakaway percentage," defined as the percentage of his yardage that came from explosive carries, i.e. carries that went for 15 yards or more, was a remarkably consistent 36.7% in 2023 and 36.4% in 2024. Tyjae Spears finished 2022 with a breakaway percentage of 50% (!!). That is the standard, and the running back room must strive to meet that standard, in 2025.
As mentioned above, Tulane beat three ranked opponents (Cincinnati, UCF, and Southern Cal) to close out 2022. Cincinnati and UCF moved onto the Big 12 six months later, and Southern Cal was the 9th ranked team in the country, at the time, from the then-Pac 12. How did Spears perform in those games? He ran for 181, 199, and 205 yards in those three contests (585, total), on 96 carries, good for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. Against both Cincinnati and Southern Cal? He topped 8.06 yards per attempt after contact.
The standard is clear, and the bar is high, but that is what's to be expected if the goal is to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff. After a disappointing end to two seasons in a row, it's time for this program and its players to once again be at their best when their best is what's required.
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