Memphis Preview
BY JAKE WEINSTOCK
Tonight, the Green Wave (2-3, 0-1) host the Tigers (5-1, 2-0) on ESPN at 6:30 pm, as Tulane puts its nine-game winning streak at Yulman Stadium on the line. The last road opponent who beat the Green Wave at Yulman? The Memphis Tigers, on Thanksgiving 2024, snapping an eight-game win streak that the 2024 team had put together.
I've spent much of the last week thinking about how important and pivotal the Tulane-Memphis matchup has been over the last decade or so, and how the winner has almost had their season defined by it, in many ways, as noted by Tim Scandurro in this week's Scandurro Story (https://www.fearthewavecollective.com/post/bombs-astray-a-scandurro-story).
In 2018, Tulane was 1-3 and out of nowhere smashed the Tigers 40-24 on a Friday night at home, giving Willie Fritz’s third season life, one that ended with the program’s first bowl win since 2002 and its first win over Memphis since 2000 (snapping a streak of 11-straight Memphis wins over Tulane).
In 2019, Tulane was 5-1 with its only loss to Auburn, on the road, and was on the cusp of entering both the coaches and AP polls. The Green Wave lost 47-17 and finished the regular season 6-6, after that 5-1 start.
In 2020, the COVID season, Tulane entered the regular season finale 5-5 and a home date with these same Memphis Tigers. In front of a limited capacity 1,350 fans, due to the COVID restrictions, Tulane attained bowl-eligibility for the third straight season by winning 35-21.
In each of 2022 and 2023, the Green Wave squared off with Memphis relatively early in conference play, and their 10-point wins in each game established that they’d be a player in the American Conference title race. Of course, in 2022 the Wave won the league, the Cotton Bowl, and finished ranked 9th in the AP Poll, and in 2023, entered the Conference Championship Game 11-1 (8-0), ranked, and with a win-and-in opportunity to another New Year’s Six Bowl Game.
I mentioned the 2024 Thanksgiving loss, and how it dashed any outside shot the Green Wave had at passing Boise State in the CFP rankings and making the College Football Playoff, which brings us to last year, when Tulane entered off of a butt-whipping in the Alamodome the week prior, and sat at 6-2. Memphis was 8-1 and was the highest ranked Group of Six team in the CFP rankings, at the time, meaning that they controlled their own destiny to the CFP. Tulane won on a Friday night in Memphis 38-32, went on to win the conference and make the CFP, and the Tigers did not win another game, finishing 8-5 (4-4).
Through their first six games, Memphis has one of the nation’s best offenses, as out of 138 FBS schools the Tigers rank 11th in points per play, 15th in scoring (37.2 points per game in their 5 games against FBS opponents), 4th in total offense, 2nd in yards per play (an astonishing 7.5), 8th in yards per carry, 1st (!) in yards per pass attempt (11.3), 12th in expected points added per pass, 22nd in expected points added per carry and 28th in offensive success rate.
Quarerback Marcus Stokes, a transfer from West Florida (who was a Division II program through 2025 before transitioning to the FCS, this season), won the starting quarterback job over Air Noland, a former four-star by 247 Sports who had been at Ohio State and South Carolina, has been sensational through the first half of Memphis’s season. He’s completing 69.7% of his passes, has an adjusted completion percentage of 78.8% (A), has a turnover-worthy play rate of 2.8% (A+), is taking sacks on 16.7% of his pressured dropbacks (B-), and has a quarterback rating of 132.4 (A+), given that he’s thrown 16 touchdowns against 3 interceptions, on the year.
Tulane will surely need to play sticky coverage and figure out how to pressure him. The Green Wave are averaging 13.25 pressures per game (excluding the Army contest where Cale Hellums dropped back just 7 times) and will probably want or need to finish somewhere closer to 20, tonight. I found it fascinating that despite all of the gaudy numbers of Stokes and this Memphis offense, he has just 5 “big time throws” per PFF across 145 dropbacks, and critically 0 of them across his 24/35 effort in the intermediate area of the field, being 10-19 yards of the line of scrimmage, where he has totaled 470 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.
In other words, Stokes has rather flawlessly operated Memphis’s “veer and shoot” offense under first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Decker. Memphis will play fast, as they average about 25 seconds between snaps, which, like Tulane, is one of the faster averages in the country, and will work hard to create space in both the running game and passing game by stretching a defense horizontally – notice tonight how wide the receivers are split from the tackle box, on both sides. The Tigers rely on a lot of good decisions from Stokes in the post-snap RPO (Run-Pass Option) game, which to date, he has delivered consistently.
While the Tigers are 5-1 (2-0), it’s fair to view their gaudy success with some skepticism, which is likely why they are not (yet) ranked in either poll and are just a 7-point favorite over our 2-3 Green Wave, tonight. They defeated UNLV to open the year, who have been something of an enigma despite their 4-2 record, lost at Boise State by three scores, beat Arkansas State (who is just 2-4) at home, won an FCS game, and then have smashed Charlotte and UAB (though they trailed in the 3rd quarter). Notably, they have not played a P4 opponent, while Tulane has played two, both on the road.
Perhaps we should expect the most healthy group of skill players that we’ve had, all season. Tulane has yet to play a game with all of Maurice Turner, Jaylin Lucas and Jamauri McClure – hopefully that will change, tonight. Tulane has yet to play with a full-go Destyn Hill, Anthony Brown-Stephens and CJ Lewis since the 3rd quarter of the Duke game, in week one – that will hopefully change, tonight, too. Garland Gillen has reported that true freshman Trace Johnson will draw his first career start, tonight, in place of Kadin Semonza.
Johnson enrolled in January and made an immediate impression on the staff throughout spring practice. Following Zeon Chriss’ failure to launch in Durham, Johnson actually became the number two quarterback quickly – in part because a gameplan with Semonza as the starter would be easier to execute on the fly with Johnson than Chriss. Johnson entered the fourth quarter of the come-from-behind Southern Miss win on September 26, and went 2-5 for 35 yards, with 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, but seemed to provide the offense with some energy and juice. He was then unable to wrestle the starting job away from Semonza during the bye week practices, but will draw the start, tonight.
Memphis’s defense has been glaringly vulnerable to the running game, as they rank 100th in expected points added per rush against and 89th in rushing game success rate against, both out of 138 FBS teams. For our subscribers who prefer more traditional statistics, the Tigers are allowing 5.0 yards per carry, which is tied for 111th worst in the country with our Tulane Green Wave, Boise State, and others. This will be quite the test for the Tulane passing game and their new quarterback, however, as Memphis has been considerably more formidable in defending the pass, as they rank 25th in expected points added per pass against and 39th in passing game success rate against. Again, for our more traditional subscribers, they are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (90th best in the FBS).
Prediction: Hopefully Johnson and the bevvy of healthy offensive weapons spark this unit and generate the type of consistent, and consistently explosive, offensive output that this staff and frankly those of us at FTW expected coming into the season. Tulane owns Memphis on Friday nights, remember (2018, 2023, 2025). I’m counting on that. Roll Wave.
Tulane 34-31.
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