Memphis @ Tulane Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

Where, oh where has our new season gone? It feels like yesterday we were anticipating Tulane's season opener on August 29 against the Southeastern Lions, and here we are, the morning of their regular season finale. Tonight, No. 17 Tulane (9-2, 7-0) will host Memphis (9-2, 5-2) with all of their goals still in front of them and still on the Thanksgiving table.

The Green Wave have already clinched a spot in a third-consecutive AAC Championship Game (to be played on Friday, December 6) against Army. Win tonight and they clinch hosting that game at Yulman Stadium for the third consecutive season.

Win the conference and a spot in the newly-expanded twelve-team College Football Playoff is very much possible, and some would even argue probable.

First, they'll need to win, tonight, against the best team they've played since September, without the support of the suddenly excellent student section at Yulman Stadium. The Tigers enter with the 11th best total offense in the FBS (134 teams) and the 19th best scoring offense. Memphis ranks 31st in Points Per Play, offensively, 38th in yards per play, 42nd in 3rd down conversion percentage, and 37th in punts per offensive score. Fortunately, perhaps, for Tulane, it has not been a Memphis offense that has overperformed relative to expectation as much as it is a Memphis offense that has moved the ball and scored about as expected, relative to down/distance/score/competition. The Tigers are 52nd in Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and 92nd in Expected Points Added per dropack, in the country. Compare and contrast that with Tulane's offense, for example, which is 40th in Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and 11th in Expected Points Added per dropack.

Quarterback Seth Henigan rounds out his fourth full season as the starter in Memphis, and he has been excellent once again. While Tulane will play this game at home, Henigan was actually the last quarterback to defeat the Green Wave in a conference road game (for the Wave), on November 27, 2021, three years and a day ago. This season, however, Henigan has managed an adjusted completion percentage of 73.0%, with an average depth of target of 9.1 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, 7.1 yards accumulated per attempt, and a turnover-worthy play rate of just 2.5% per PFF. Further, his pressure-to-sack percentage sits at a nearly-elite level of 13.6%. Again, he has one of the nation's most successful deep ball passers, when making throws that travel 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He's hit on 26/72 such attempts, which have resulted in 865 yards, 9 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and only 3 turnover-worthy throws, also per PFF. The Tigers offense is quite clearly a throw-first operation, as they are 23rd in the country in percentage of offensive snaps that are a called pass play.

So who is Henigan throwing to? Well, somehow his superstar receiver Roc Taylor hasn't run out of eligibility yet, either, because he's still around. Taylor has hauled in 55 of his 89 targets for 742 yards, all three of which are runaway team highs for the Tigers offense. DeMeer Blankumsee and Koby Drake also return, and the trio has remained potent for year another season. Blankumsee has corralled 40 of his 65 targets for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Drake has secured 37 of his 61 targets for 471 yards and a single score. All three have an average depth of target above 10.0, with Taylor's being the furthest, at 14.7. There is no running back by committee, as South Carolina Gamecock transfer Mario Anderson, Jr. has 143 more carries than anyone else on the roster. He has totaled 1,115 yards on his 5.7 yards per attempt, good for an average of 5.7 yards per attempt, and 16 (!) touchdowns, with an average of 3.65 yards per attempt after contact, per PFF.

The Memphis defense, on the other hand, has been far more average to below-average this season. They are 61st in points per game allowed, 60th in yards per game allowed, 78th in yards per play allowed, 67th in points per play allowed, 58th in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed, 44th in punts per offensive score forced. They are allowing 4.0 yards per carry to enemy rushers (50th best in the FBS) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (64th). Keep an eye on Chandler Martin and William Whitlow, Jr., who have been the best two pass rushers on a team that has rushed the passer quite well. As a team, they are averaging over 15 pressures per game, and Martin and Whitlow lead the way with 28 and 25, respectively. That being said, they are just two of seven tigers with 12 pressures or more, through 11 games.

While the Tigers don't overwhelm on defense, statistically, one area where they have excelled that mirrors the Green Wave is that of the turnover margin. Tulane has the 5th best turnover margin average in the FBS (+1.1 per game), and Memphis is right behind them with the 7th best turnover margin (+1.0).

Prediction: The talent that Memphis has, the statistics they've accumulated against certain opponents, the point differential in conference play (+74, in comparison to Tulane's +220), it all speaks to a team that somehow has managed to underperform despite starting the season 9-2. This is a team that trailed Charlotte with 1:40 to play in Memphis, and allowed 56 points to the navy offense that Tulane shut out 12 days ago. Tulane 45-21