Southern Miss Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

For the second time in three seasons, Tulane finds itself 1-2 with two losses to Power Four Conference programs, as they face off with Southern Miss for the fifth time in the last eight seasons (Armed Forces Bowl following the 2019 season, 2020, 2022, 2023 and today). The Green Wave are looking to get into the bye week at 2-2 before an absolutely pivotal three-game stretch to open American Conference play. Once Tulane emerges from the bye, they will play in West Point against Army, who currently has the fifth best odds to win the American, then host Memphis, who has the best odds to win the American, before hosting UTSA, who has the second best odds to win the American.

But first, Tulane will take the field tonight seeking their ninth straight victory at Yulman Stadium, dating back to a Thanksgiving night loss to Memphis in 2024. While the 1-2 start has not been what anyone was hoping for, even with Duke and Kansas State both being on the road, there is a fair amount of underlying data and metrics that indicate that the Green Wave are trending in the right direction, beyond the eye-test, but let's start there. After 15 penalties in the opener against Duke, Tulane has had just 4 and then 5 in each of the last two weeks. Through three games, the Green Wave have turned the ball over just once, and that came in the opener against Duke. Even against a stout Kansas State defense, which is statisctically one of the country's best through three weeks, Tulane ran the ball for 5.2 yards per carry last week (after sacks are filtered out). And finally, Tulane's three opponents are a combined 8-1, with the one loss being that which Tulane handed South Alabama at Yulman Stadium, two weeks ago.

As for the underlying metrics, I tweeted this week that Tulane ranks 41st in net adjusted expected points added per play in the country, out of 138 FBS schools. So, what is net adjusted expected points added per play? Glad you asked. It is "an advanced football metric that measures a team's overall efficiency by subtracting the expected points the defense allows per play from the expected points the offense creates per play, with extra adjustments made for opponent strength, field position, or garbage time." In other words, relative to their schedule thus far, Tulane has performed significantly better than average, which is in-part fueling my expectation that tonight will be a 42-17 win (spoiler) and that the Green Wave will continue to experience the success in confernce play that we have all come to know and enjoy over these past four seasons, in which Tulane has a sparkling 29-3 record in the regular season in the American (and of course 2-2 in conference championship games, over that time). Southern Miss, on the other hand, ranks 118th nationally in net adjusted expected points added per play in the country, out of those 138 FBS schools, and just trailed 41-6 in the third quarter at home to Connecticut, against whom the markets made them a 3.5 point favorite. The Golden Eagles went on to lose 48-20. Put simply, if this 2026 version of our Green Wave are who we hope they are, tonight's game should not be stressful or uncomfortable.

Southern Miss will be breaking in a new quarterback, Landry Lyddy, who is an experienced fifth-year veteran, making his sixth career start, but just his second since 2022, when he started four games for Louisiana Tech. Across his career, he has completed 63.2% of his passes (151 for 239) across 260 dropbacks, totaling 1,563 yards (6.5 yards per attempt), thrown seven touchdowns against eleven interceptions, but has a turnover-worthy play rate of 6.1%. He's done a okay-but-not-spectacular job of avoiding sacks, as 17.2% of his career pressures have resulted in sacks, and has a career passer raiting of just 72.6. Last week, in relief of Ethan Hampton, Lyddy completed 56% of his passes (14/28), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, with an adjusted completion percentage of 69.6%. When Lyddy takes to the air, look for him to most-frequently target Mario Sanders, who has amassed 16 catches on 24 targets for 233 yards or A.J. Little, who has accumulated 11 catches on 15 targets for 101 yards. No one else has totaled even 10 targets through the Golden Eagles' opening three games.

To say that the Southern Miss offense has been poor would be an understatement. They rank 116th in expected points added per pass, 107th in expected points added per rush, 107th in success rate on offense, and 124th in net expected points added per drive. They are rushing for 4.7 yards per carry, but that's a bit inflated by 317 yards on 57 carries (with six rushing touchdowns) against FCS Alcorn State in week one. Their running game is headed by Steven Robinson, who has taken 55 carries for 243 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and is averaging 2.9 yards per carry after contact. While those numbers are solid, he's not generating explosives. Only 5 of those 55 carries have gone for 10 yards or more and none have gone for even 15 yards. Limiting explosives is and will likely continue to be a big component of the strategy for Tulane defensive coordinator Tayler Polk.

The Golden Eagles' defense has not been much better, unfortunately for those in Hattiesburg. Southern Miss' defense ranks 101st in expected points added per pass, 129th in expected points added per rush, 119th in defensive success rate, 131st in net expected points added per drive, and 123rd in net adjusted expected points added per play against. Additionally, Southern Miss ranks 125th in points per play against, meaning that on average, opponents are scoring a touchdown about once every 12 plays. Say what you will about Tulane's defensive performance through three weeks, but they're generally making opponents sustain drives, as they conversly rank 47th in points per play against, and 3rd in the American Conference.

After a physical, grueling game last week in which the heat index never dropped below 100, it will be interesting to see how much juice Tulane has tonight. The last time USM came to Yulman Stadium, the Green Wave had just played a physical day game in Manhattan, Kansas under similar conditions and entered as a 16.5 point favorite against the Golden Eagles (Tulane is currently a 17.5 point favorite), led 14-0, before falling 27-24. That was 2022, and the Green Wave of course went on to win the Cotton Bowl an finish the season ranked 9th in the AP Poll. Will Hall, the head coach of those 2022 Golden Eagles, will try to ensure the Bell stays in New Orleans, this time.

Prediction: Tulane 42-17