By Jake Weinstock
Photo Credit: Parker Waters
Tomorrow afternoon, Tulane (1-1, 0-0) visits #13 ranked Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0) for the third of three matchups in their non-conference scheduling agreement (2017, 2021). What was originally devised as a two-for-one agreement, meaning that two games would be played in Norman, Oklahoma, and a third in New Orleans, at Yulman Stadium, was turned into three games in Norman, due to Hurricane Ida and limited/no pushback from the then athletic director at Tulane, who is now on his third employer in the last eleven months. The Green Wave enter this matchup coming off of a heartbreaking 34-27 loss to Kansas State, at home, seeking to avoid falling below .500 for the first time since November of 2021.
The question is not whether the Green Wave can win, but rather, how can they win, even as an underdog? First and foremost, the Tulane front will need to be more disruptive than its been through two games. As a team, the Wave have only generated 20 pressures, and some of the standout players along the front have yet to really get going. Patrick Jenkins has 2 pressures, Adin Huntington has 3, Terrell Allen has 0, Angelo Anderson has 1, and Adonis Friloux has 1, while Kam Hamilton continues to dominate in limited opportunities and has already posted 4. Clearly the tendency/goal of Jon Sumrall and defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato is to generate pressure with that front 4, and not have to dedicate extra bodies to rushing the passer or blitzing to plug gaps in the running game, but if this group doesn’t get going, and fast, the staff may have to break tendency a little bit. I would not be surprised to see Sam Howard and Tyler Grubbs used as blitzers, more often, tomorrow, perhaps even with a double A gap mug look. Further, Caleb Ransaw (the only Tulane defender to play all 58 snaps against Kansas State) has been a very effective as an edge blitzer from the slot corner spot, throughout his career. Again, I suspect Sumrall would rather not push that blitz button, and the ideal would certainly be this Tulane front four coming to life against a banged up offensive line for the Sooners, who will likely be without several starters, tomorrow. Regardless, as we wrote on Wednesday, it’s time for Kam Hamilton’s snap count to get out of the teens and into the thirties.
Jackson Arnold replaces Dillion Gabriel at quarterback for the Sooners, after the latter moved on to replace Bo Nix at Oregon, after last season. Nix of course revived his career in the pacific northwest after an up-and-down tenure at Auburn, and parlayed his two years of success with the Ducks into being the 12th overall selection in April’s NFL Draft. Arnold inherits a situation with a few new pieces, and he is clearly finding his footing, early. Over 144 career dropbacks (of which 67 have come through the season’s first two games), he has averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt, and has struggled to avoid sacks when pressured. Like Darian Mensah, coincidentally, he has been sacked on 23.8% of his pressures, which is a rather high percentage – typically you don’t want to be above 15%, and 8-10% is considered elite. Arnold has collapsed under pressure, in a limited sample size, but is unquestionably an effective runner and can punish a defense even when everything is covered up well, much as Tulane fans saw from Avery Johnson, last weekend, on occasion. The Sooners’ passing efficiency, to date, has left quite a lot to be desired, as pointed out by FTW contributor Cory “The Cap” Agular, so expect Oklahoma to try and lean into the run if possible, likely with emerging lead back Jovantae Barnes. It is therefore critically important that Tulane gets a lead, perhaps even a two-score lead, and makes Oklahoma play this game left-handed.
The Green Wave will probably want to try and score more than the 12 points mustered by Houston, a school named after a city in Texas, last weekend, when they visited Norman to take on the Sooners. [REDACTED]’s offense has been abysmal through two games, perhaps because he’s on his fifth offensive coordinator in five years, so the hope here is that Tulane can top that figure. Leading the way is Darian Mensah, who has been electric through two games, despite taking a fair number of sacks, as mentioned above. Mensah has been surgical when kept clean, with an adjusted completion percentage above 85%, an average depth of target of 13.2 (yards past the line of scrimmage) and no “turnover worthy plays,” by PFF. Even when pressured, his adjusted completion percentage has remained just above 77%, with an unchanged average depth of target (13.4). Oklahoma linebacker Danny Stutsman (preseason all-SEC 1st team) and this Sooner front could make running the ball a bit more challenging than Kansas State did, last week. Look for Tulane to continue to experiment with getting Ty Thompson involved in the red area -- he is a strong, tough, quick athlete and can be a real weapon down there, as Frank Scelfo learned 2 weeks ago.
To win on Saturday, Mensah will need to continue to challenge down the field, but perhaps more so in the intermediate area of 10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage, rather than the “deep” area, defined by PFF as 20+ yards down the field. To be sure, he has been excellent through two games at both, completing 10 of 13 attempts in the intermediate area and 5 of 9 deep shots. The Sooners under head coach Brent Venables clearly want to play a lot of high multiple safety shells that force an offense to go the length of the field, and force them into 10-12 play drives, hoping for a mistake, especially as the spaces begin to tighten in the high red area. If the Sooners are determined to take away the home runs, Mensah is well-equipped to come away with a good number of doubles, tomorrow. Mario Williams, who spent 2021 playing for Oklahoma prior to transferring to Southern Cal, Yulkeith Brown and Dontae Fleming have shown their ability to work well with Mensah down the field – that will be more vital tomorrow than it has been to date, this season. Mensah will need to be highly aware of safety Billy Bowman, at all times, who like Danny Stutsman, was a preseason all-SEC 1st team selection.
Prediction: I think the game will be more high scoring than the markets do, in part because despite understanding how these two defenses want to play, I expect some explosive plays from each squad. Tulane clearly has the better quarterback. Will that be enough?
Tulane 30-27
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