Tulane @ Duke Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

It’s been 259 days since the Green Wave walked off the field for the final time last season, in Oxford, at the end of a CFP first-round loss to the Ole Miss Rebels. Finally, after nine months of buildup, talk, and debate, we get our first real look at Tulane’s 2026 team, in Will Hall’s debut as the head coach. The Green Wave have won four consecutive season openers, and now draw the reigning ACC Champion Duke Blue Devils, who they bested 34-27 at Yulman Stadium, last September.  

Duke, still coached by Manny Diaz (entering his third season) find themselves in the space that our Green Wave were a year ago; learning how to replace Darian Mensah, after he entered the portal under questionable circumstances and left abruptly. In 2025, the Blue Devils ranked 1^st in the ACC in points per game (34.6), 3^rd in yards per game (423.5 yards per) and 1^st in offensive touchdowns (60). However, it’s not just Mensah that is missing from their explosive 2025 passing attack. The Blue Devils must replace receivers Cooper Barkate (115 targets, 72 receptions, 1,093 yards, 7 touchdowns), Que’Sean Brown (91 targets, 65 receptions 844 yards, 5 touchdowns), Sahmir Hagans (64 targets, 43 receptions, 501 yards, and 6 touchdowns), and Andrel Anthony (36 targets, 26 receptions, 246 yards and 5 touchdowns). They do not return a wide receiver who caught more than 7 passes, in 2025.

That said, Jayden Moore, who had 7 catches on 11 targets in 2025 has reportedly looked ready to take a step forward, and they are expecting serious contributions from transfer Jonah Burton (Baylor, Idaho State), Javen Nicholas (Charlotte, where he totaled 60 receptions on 84 targets, 746 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2025, after transferring in from LSU), and Jared Richardson (Penn, where he racked up 193 career receptions, 2,505 yards, and 27 touchdowns across 29 starts).

In Mensah’s absence, Walker Eget, a 5^th year transfer from San Jose State beat out redshirt freshman Dan Mahan in fall camp and was named the starter just under two weeks ago. While Eget was 3-8 as a starter at SJSU last season, he did finish 59^th in expected points added per drop back across the FBS, which is respectable. Following that battle closely, it feels as though perhaps the Blue Devils went with the safer, more ball-control option, over the riskier, higher long-term upside option in Mahan. Which leads me to the following…

In 2025, the Blue Devils were 111^th out of 136 FBS schools in designed rushing play rate, meaning they called a running play on just 46.04% of their offensive snaps (scrambles for positive yardage and sacks, for example, count as designed passing plays, though they are each technically rushing attempts). I will be relatively surprised if they maintain such a rate this season, losing Mensah, the four receivers, while still having Nate Sheppard in the fold.

Who is Nate Sheppard? He’s their returning feature-back who had 1,132 yards on 200 carries in 2025, good for an average of 5.7 yards per attempt, 3.56 yards per attempt after contact, and 11 touchdowns, all with zero fumbles. Against the Wave in week 3, he had just 5 carries for 75 yards, with 4 of those 5 going for more than 10 yards. In no game after that one did he carry the ball less than 12 times for the Blue Devils, and you’d have to think not feeding him more at Yulman is a regret that Duke will surely rectify, today, having spent months and months rewatching that game film. On the offensive line, the Blue Devils return two starters.

Tulane certainly has had their share of work to do to replace some departed starters on the defensive line, but consider that the Blue Devils have just one projected starter on the defensive line who has made a career start at the FBS level – Tyshon Reed, Jr. started in the Sun Bowl. All four of Duke’s projected starters, Reed, David Anderson, Preston Watson, and Kevin O’Connor are third or fourth year, homegrown players, who served in rotational backup roles in 2025.

Luke Mergott is the heart of this defense, at linebacker, and his position flexibility should serve them well. The Green Wave would be wise to make sure they know where he is before each and every snap. The Blue Devils allowed 4.4 yards per carry to their opponents in 2025, which was the 69^th lowest such average in the FBS.

In the secondary, strong safety DaSawhn Stone returns, free safety Andrew Pellicciotta gets his shot as a starter after playing 357 snaps as a reserve in 2025, transfer Kyon Loud, a transfer from Montana will play at the boundary corner spot while Dylan Flowers, a Western Kentucky transfer, is expected to get the nod at the field. Overall, the Duke defense was their Achilles’ heel in 2025, as they ranked 119^th in expected points added against in the air and 56^th in expected points added against on the ground. They were just 99^th best in terms of their opponents’ early downs (1^st and 2^nd) expected points added per play and 92^nd best in terms of their opponents’ late downs (3^rd and 4^th) expected points added per play.

Prediction: With two teams breaking in new starting quarterbacks, albeit both with seniors, I expect both to try and run the ball consistently, though for different reasons. The Tulane offense is designed to run the ball, Zeon Chriss was added from the portal because of the vision of how he could fit in that offense. Duke, on the other hand, clearly enjoyed airing it out in 2025, but may have to adapt in 2026 to their personnel. I think the Green Wave walk it off in overtime, 29-23, Tulane.