Tulane - Kansas State Preview

Photo Credit: Parker Waters

And away we go...

After an expected victory to open the season last Thursday against Southeastern Louisiana (FCS), Tulane (1-0, 0-0) now gets a visit from nationally-ranked Kansas State (1-0, 0-0), who checks in at 16th in the Coaches Poll and 17th in the AP Poll. Much has changed for both programs since they met in Week 3 of the 2022 season. Kansas State went onto participate in the Sugar Bowl, that season, before completing a 9-4 2023 season that saw them finish ranked 18th in the nation.

While Head Coach Chris Klieman returns, he is breaking in both a new offensive coordinator and quarterback, after Colin Klein and Will Howard left Manhattan for the same roles at Texas A&M and Ohio State, respectively. In response to losing Klein, Klieman promoted offensive line coach Conor Riley to co-offensive coordinator, along with newly hired Matt Wells, who had been the head coach at each of Utah State and Texas Tech, prior to spending 2022 and 2023 as an analyst at Oklahoma. The system, it appears, has not changed much.

Kansas State actively tries to use an opposing defense's aggression against them. The offense operates out of both shotgun and the pistol, and it would be quite rare to see a snap under center. They generally feature a heavy use of 11 (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 receivers) and 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 receivers) with the wrinkle that they generally deploy one of the tight ends as an H-Back when operating out of the pistol.

Expect heavy doses of motion, zone-reads, and post-snap RPOs (Run-Pass Options) from quarterback Avery Johnson (#2). Tulane fans will recall that the Wave employed a similar strategy in 2022. These concepts put a great deal of stress on the second level of any defense, if not defended properly. In fact, Kansas State wound up with a wide-open walk-in touchdown against Tennessee Martin to start their season, as the weak-side linebacker bit on the run action, and an H-Back slipped behind him, downfield. Whether on a designed run play or on a scramble from a muddied or broken pocket, Johnson is a high-level athlete and can impact any drive with his legs. In fact, in the opener against Tennessee-Martin, we found very few instances of Johnson delivering the ball to a second read. He appeared to scramble when that was taken away. The Kansas State offensive staff, on designed pass plays, seems determined to offer Johnson high-percentage quick throws that (a) get the ball out of his hand, (b) have a high completion rate, and (c) allow Kansas State's eligible receivers opportunities after the catch. He will be making his 4th career start on Saturday morning, and enters with a career stat line of 49/85 (57.6%) for 626 yards (7.4 yards per attempt). 49 of his 85 career attempts have either been behind the line of scrimmage or within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Kansas State will rotate backs a little bit, but the bell cow is clearly D.J. Giddens (#31), who carried the load both in 2023 and in the season opener against UT-Martin. Last season, Giddens generated 1,226 yards and 10 touchdowns on 223 attempts, which equates to 5.5 yards per attempt, an impressive 3.26 yards per attempt of which occurred after contact. In the season opener, Giddens was pulled early, like most of the starters. Before taking a rest, however, he produced 124 yards on just 14 carries, which is an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. He also mustered 70 yards after contact, which averages out to 5.0 yards per rush after contact. He is the focal point of the Kansas State offense, and is a big part of what keeps those second-level defenders honest in this RPO-heavy scheme. Up front, the Wildcats are breaking in new starters at both center and left tackle, and have their 2023 right guard starter moving over to the left side.

Jayce Brown (#1) was clearly Johnson's go-to target last weekend, in Kansas State's season opener, hauling in 5 of his 6 targets for 71 yards, but again, to my point about a lot of the throws being quick and of a high-percentage nature, he only averaged 1.6 yards after reception, per reception. In 2023, Brown corralled 27 of his 43 targets for 437 yards and 3 touchdowns. Gone are Phillip Brooks and Ben Sinnott, who paced the Wildcats in both targets and receptions in 2023.

Kansas State employs a 3-3-5 defense, part of a growing trend in college football, which allows for increased flexibility to defend against both the run and the pass. The front differs from a more typical 3-4 or 4-3 in that all three of the down linemen play a “head’s up” technique, lining up directly across from each of the corresponding offensive lineman. What makes it a challenge, primarily, for opposing offensive lines, such as that of the Green Wave, is that each defensive lineman is only responsible for one gap in the run fits, but because of the “head’s up” alignment, that gap assignment is not telegraphed or known to the offense, before the snap of the ball, as it would be against a 4-3 defense, for example.

The Wildcats' secondary is definitely one of their strengths, and Darian Mensah and these talented Tulane receivers will be tested, early and often. They return both starting outside corners from a year ago, Keenan Garber (#1) and Jacob Parrish (#10), and both are high quality players. Desmond Purnell (#32), a 13-game starter from last season, returns at weak-side linebacker, and had a strong opening game against UT-Martin. The Kansas State defense was one of the country's best on those "weighty" third downs in 2023, finishing 11th nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage against (30.0%). Additionally, while opponents made it into the red zone against KSU on 33 occasions, they combined to come away with just 13 red zone touchdowns. That 39% conversion rate was the 2nd best in the nation, behind only UCLA, and just ahead of Notre Dame, Michigan, and Nebraska.

Overall, I like some of the matchups that the Green Wave have, especially if they can get Makhi Hughes and the ground game going. As I said on the postgame podcast, last week, I really am excited about watching these receivers (Brown and Williams, in particular) match up with some Big 12/SEC corners. I anticipate Sumrall and Gasparato will have the defense well prepared for the misdirection, pulls and traps of the KSU running game, and will have them disciplined to defend the RPOs. I would expect a lot of man coverage from the Tulane defense, this week, perhaps with a safety dropped into the box to drive on some of those intermediate throwing lanes. Slot corner Caleb Ransaw, one of Tulane's best players, will be absolutely pivotal this week -- he'll need to cause some disruption around the line of scrimmage, especially on bubble screens. It's important to put that slot receiver/lead blocker in reverse.

And away we go...

Prediction: 23-20 Tulane