BY JAKE WEINSTOCK
The Tulane Green Wave (1-2, 0-0) look to close out non-conference play with a victory on Saturday morning, against the impressive-looking Ragin' Cajuns from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette (2-0, 0-0). The game will kickoff at 11:00 a.m. CST at Cajun Field, in Lafayette, Louisiana and will be broadcast on ESPNU.
Tulane is looking to get back into the win column after two difficult, competitive, physical losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma, in back-to-back weeks. The Wildcats and Sooners are ranked 13th and 15th, respectively, in this week's AP poll. The Cajuns' situation, on the other hand, could not be more different. After defeating Grambling State 40-10 on Labor Day Weekend and then Kennesaw State 34-10 on September 7, ULL is sitting on 14 days' rest, fresh off a bye, looking to defend their home turf.
Fortunately for Tulane and redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah, even in those two victories, the Cajuns have done a remarkably poor job of pressuring the quarterback, thus far. Through 2 games they have managed just 12 pressures as a team and 0 sacks. That's excellent news for Mensah, who despite the competition, has been elite when kept clean, per PFF. On 50 such dropbacks, this season, he has an adjusted completion percentage of 76.1%, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 469 yards and an average depth of target of 13.3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Further, he has been deadly when targeting the intermediate area of the field (defined as 10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), completing 17 of 24 passes for 321 yards, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, and a quarterback rating of 135.4. Phrased another way, he has converted those 24 dropbacks into 17 first downs. Tyrone Lewis (#3) has been sensational for the Cajuns at safety, as Keyon Martin (#2) at corner. Mensah would be well-served to be observant of where they line Lewis up, in particular. They've already shown a propensity to move him around, as he's spent 38 of his 102 snaps this season in the box or in the slot.
On the other side is ULL quarterback Ben Wooldridge (#10), who has a bit of experience, having accumulated 436 snaps in his career. Wooldridge won't be called on as a driver of the offense, if the Ragin' Cajuns can help it, as only 16 of the 134 FBS qualifiers have had a higher percentage of their offensive snaps be devoted to designed runs. Now, certainly a good bit of that has been game-script (i.e. being ahead by so much in both of their first two contests), but they still called a design run on over 55% of their offensive snaps, last season. Wooldridge has been statistically excellent, this season, completing 75.5% of his passes, averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, posting a quarterback rating above 121 and holding an adjusted completion percentage (one that filters out drops) of 89.6%. Indeed, the ULL offense is ranked 4th in the nation in points-per-play, one of my favorite metrics to gauge scoring efficiency, 12th in yards per play, and 27th in points per game, all out of the same 134 qualifiers. However, a dive into his 2022 and (limited) 2023 opportunities paint the blueprint for success for this Tulane defense. Over his 3-year career at ULL, Wooldridge has had 123 dropbacks under pressure. And the results? 26 completions on 92 attempts (28.2% completion percentage), 383 yards, 6 turnover-worthy plays and 16 sacks.
Now, the interesting point is not that he is atrocious under pressure, but rather, how Jon Sumrall and Greg Gasparato generate that pressure. It's quite clear that through the first two games, and the first quarter-and-a-half of Oklahoma, the intent was to get pressure predominantly with the front four. However, given the lack of success in doing so, more and more blitzes were called from then on out, against Oklahoma. For context, Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) was blitzed by the Tulane defense 16 times, whereas Avery Johnson (Kansas State) was blitzed just 6 times. Regardless of how they get there, it's a pretty safe bet that Sumrall & co. are aware of Wooldridge's struggles against pressure (especially interior pressure, from our film review), and they'll be sure to generate some, even if it has to be manufactured via the blitz.
Jacob Bernard (#4) has been Wooldridge's go-to, this season, and leads the Cajuns in targets (11), receptions (8), and yards (112), through 2 games. This could be the week they try to get Harvey Broussard (#3) more activated and involved, however. Through two games, Broussard has caught 5 of his 6 targets for 82 yards and a score, but he is the leading snap-getter at wide receiver for ULL by a wide margin. Terrance Carter (#0) is a reliable option at tight end that almost never leaves the field. He has caught all 6 targets, to date, and has turned them into 87 yards and a touchdown. Again, the Cajuns don't want to rely on the passing game, but it's impossible to argue they haven't looked capable through 2 games.
Elijah Davis (#7) and Zylan Perry (#21) have paced the way for ULL, thus far, registering 17 and 15 attempts, and totaling 115 and 149 yards, respectively. 6 different backs have totaled at least 5 carries through these two games, so the Ragin' Cajuns have done a good job of keeping their options fresh, especially after the opening day injury to Dre'lyn Washington (#20). Washington was cleared on Wednesday by ULL head coach Michael Desormeaux, so the open question is whether he's eased back into a rotation, or whether he is immediately given the lion's share of the snaps and touches.
PREDICTION: I recognize that I am way outside of the market's expectation on this one, with the Green Wave only favored by 2.5 points, but despite ULL's week off, despite Tulane's grueling slate, to date, I think there's plenty of gas in the tank from the boys from uptown. There's a reason games aren't played on paper. The expectation here is that come Sunday, ULL won't be top 5 in the nation in points per play, any longer. But as with all things, we shall see. Tulane 31-14
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