Tulane @ Memphis Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

Well, that was unexpected.

By multiple accounts, Tulane had one of their best weeks of practice heading into the UTSA game, wherein the Green Wave received the opening kickoff, marched right down the field and scored to go up 6-0, before being outscored 31-6 over the remainder of the first half, and then ultimately losing by a final score of 48-26.

When I wrote before the UTSA game that it was time for Tulane to "make a statement," that wasn't exactly the kind that I had in mind. Now, the Green Wave (6-2, 3-1) no longer control their own destiny to the College Football Playoff, or even arguably to the American Conference Championship Game, as they sit in a six-way tie (in the loss column) for 1st Place.

It was noted this week by FTW subscriber Joe Agular that two years ago, Tulane had one of its best regular season wins of the eight-year Willie Fritz era when the Green Wave last visited Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Tulane and Memphis were both 4-1 at the time, and the game was also played on a Friday night. The Green Wave smoked the Tigers in a 31-21 victory that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated, and would have been a three-score win but for a phantom penalty that negated a long Chris Brazzell II touchdown.

Now, Tulane and Jon Sumrall have an opportunity to take home a similarly marquee win, tonight (8:00 p.m. CT, ESPN, 106.7 The Ticket). This 2025 version of the Green Wave has simply not played well on the road. While they are 4-0 at home with two Power 4 wins (Duke sits at 5-3 as does Northwestern, by the way), they've struggled away from Yulman Stadium, mightily: South Alabama: Tulane escaped from Mobile 33-31 after the Jaguars had a chance to tie the game with less than a minute to play. On the season, South Alabama holds an unimpressive record of 2-7.

Ole Miss: In what many felt was a potential College Football Playoff preview (and still could be!), Tulane trailed 45-3 with less than four minutes to play.

Tulsa: The Green Wave beat the breaks off of Tulsa, 31-14, who themselves were fresh off of a road win over a Big XII opponent in Oklahoma State.

UTSA: As discussed above, Tulane was thoroughly outplayed last Thursday night, falling by a score of 48-26 to the Roadrunners.

Memphis is ranked 22nd in the AP Poll, and while not officially in the College Football Playoff's initial top 25 rankings, they would be the imputed fifth-highest ranked conference champion, if the season ended today. It goes without saying that Tulane has a 0.000000% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff with a loss tonight, and likely is less than 50% to make the American Conference Championship Game, even if they are to win the 3 games behind this one. In many ways, this feels like an inflection point, and with that, an undeniable opportunity. Because while last week was surely bad, and things feel rough right now, I would not be surprised if Tulane ends up in next week's College Football Playoff top 25 rankings with a win.

To do that, they'll need to beat an 8-1 (4-1) Memphis team that, (out of 136 FBS qualifiers) offensively, ranks 23rd in points per play, 29th in yards per play, 46th in 3rd down conversion percentage, 28th in fewest punts per offensive score, 36th in yards per pass attempt (8.1), 22nd in yards per carry (5.0). Inexplicably, this Memphis team lost to UAB three weeks ago, but has an otherwise perfect resume. The Blazers are otherwise 1-5 against the FBS, and had just fired head coach Trent Dilfer. Now, the good news is that Seth Henigan, Roc Taylor, and Mario Anderson, Jr. are gone. The bad news is that the Memphis offense has not lost a step, on paper.

Running backs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers, Jr. have split the load this season, with Smith carrying the ball 87 times for 515 yards (5.9 yards per attempt) and six touchdowns, while Desrosiers has 75 carries for 450 yards (6.0 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns. Their breakaway percentages are a nearly identical 45.0% and 46.0%, respectively, and have quite obviously both fared well in the Tigers zone scheme.

For his own part, quarterback Brendon Lewis has 96 carries and 672 yards (7.0 yards per attempt) and eight touchdowns, and only 38 of those 96 carries have been scrambles, per ProFootballFocus. Impressively, 45 of those 96 carries have gone for first downs. As a passer, Lewis has completed 68.8% of his passes for 1,869 yards (8.1 yards per attempt), but his adjusted completion percentage is 81.7% and he carries a strong PFF grade of 86.3, through nine games. When pressured, he still holds an adjusted completion percentage of 75.0% against an average depth of target of 12.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and a yards per attempt average of 8.8 yards. Lewis has shown a willingness to take sacks, however, as he has been brought down for multiple sacks in six of his last seven starts. The one exception? He was sacked "just" once in the loss to UAB, but he also only played for three series, exiting a 17-14 game with an injury, and did not return.

Memphis' defense has likewise been statistically excellent, this season, as they are allowing the 23rd fewest points per game to their opponents, the 23rd fewest points per play by their opponents, and have forced the 19th most punts per offensive score, by their opponents. They are allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt (50th best in the FBS) and 6.6 yards per pass attempt (36th best in the FBS). Of note, however, is that they are 113th in sack percentage, and Jake Retzlaff has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country at avoiding sacks, when pressured; Tulane ranks in the top ten in lowest sack percentage (taken). Memphis ranks just 85h in net expected points added per play against, and 47th in defensive success rate. Where the Tigers really excel, however, is at forcing turnovers and winning the turnover margin. Memphis is the 10th best turnover margin team in the country, while Tulane has plummeted to 52nd overall, after that -4 performance against UTSA.

Prediction: In order to win tonight, Tulane is going to have to play from ahead, they're going to have to score early and often, and they're probably going to need to win the turnover margin and capitalize when those opportunities come. The Green Wave offense is ranked 28th in success rate while their defense ranks 104th. The Green Wave offense ranks 26th in net expected points added per play while the defense ranks 58th. There is nothing on paper that suggests that Memphis will not be able to score against the Wave, but games, fortunately, aren't played on paper. Tulane 34-31