Tulane @ Navy Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

Finally, the rubber meets the road. After rolling up several of the underachieving programs in the American, No. 25 Tulane, 8-2 (6-0) will seek to clinch a spot in the AAC Championship Game for the third season in a row, this Saturday in Annapolis, MD, as they visit the 7-2 (5-1) Navy Midshipmen at 11:00 am CST (ESPN2). Somehow, and I’m not quite sure how, it has always felt like this would be a pivotal game for the Green Wave, from the moment the schedule was released in February. Perhaps it’s because these Tulane-Navy games have frequently proven to be monumentally important, over the last decade or so:

In 2017, Tulane lost a heartbreaker 23-21 in Annapolis, and ended up finishing 5-7, just one win shy of bowl eligibility.

In 2018, Tulane hosted Navy in the final week of the regular season, hit on a two-point conversion with less than a minute to play, and won 29-28, thereby finishing 6-6 and earning the school’s first bowl birth in 5 years (dating back to the 2013 New Orleans Bowl).

In each of 2019 and 2020, the Midshipmen edged the Green Wave by a field goal; 41-38 in Annapolis and 27-24 in an empty Yulman Stadium in 2020, due to the COVID pandemic. In both seasons, Tulane narrowly secured bowl eligibility, winning just 6 regular season games, each year.

And now they meet for the first time since September 2020, and for the first time in front of fans since October of 2019. Both programs desperate for that second slot in the AAC Conference title game, with Army a win against struggling UTSA (4-5, 2-3) away from clinching their place, regardless of what happens elsewhere.

The Green Wave have won seven (7) straight games, having last lost over two (2) months ago in Norman, OK, to the Sooners. They have won sixteen (16) consecutive AAC regular season games and have not lost an AAC road game since November 27, 2021 – having won eleven (11) straight, since falling in Memphis on that chilly night, almost three years ago to the day. They enter this one four days after entering the College Football Playoff Top 25 for the first time this season, and with focus, intensity, and absolutely everything to play for. And when they pull into Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday morning, what will they find?

First, they’ll find one of the most complex and difficult to diagnose defenses in the college game. They will line up 7 at the line of scrimmage and only bring 3. They will vary their fronts. They’ll tip off an offense that they’re in zone, pre-snap, and then be in man. They’ll walk a safety into the box and rotate late into a two-high coverage. The result has been one of the nation’s best scoring defenses. Out of 134 FBS qualifiers, Navy is 29th in points per play allowed, and 22nd in points per game allowed. They have been in the middle of the pack, however, in punts per offensive score forced (57th),  yards per game allowed (81st), and yards per play allowed (71st). Navy has allowed 4.5 yards per carry to opposing offenses (85th best) and 7.0 yards per attempt to opposing passers (51st best).

How can they be top 25 in scoring defense but not even in the top 80 in yards per game allowed, you ask? Well, it’s rather simple. They have been very good in defending the red zone, but even more impactful, they are 7th in the nation in takeaways, as they have forced opponents into an average of 2.1 turnovers per game. So Tulane, who has been rather elite at converting red zone trips into touchdowns and avoiding turnovers, will need to get it done against a defense that has made a living off of keeping opponents out of the end zone and taking the ball away. For statistical context, Tulane is 12th in the nation in fewest giveaways, with just 8 of them through 10 games. Further, the Green Wave have turned 51 red zone trips into 35 touchdowns and 11 field goals. 68.6% of the trips being converted into touchdowns is rather impressive. Regardless, there can be no debate that clearly Navy possesses the best defense Tulane has faced in conference play, this season, and perhaps all season long.

Linebacker Colin Ramos (wears number 44) and safety Rauan Lane, III (18), together with corner Dashaun Peele (1) are three of the best defenders in the entire conference. Not to be outdone, Justin Reed (94) and Landon Robinson (96) an edge rusher and interior defensive lineman, respectively, have led the way with 25 and 24 pressures, to date. It will be fascinating to see how much Joe Craddock wants to lean into Darian Mensah, and how many times he may be called on in less than advantageous spots, i.e. on obvious passing downs, and/or without the protection of an RPO, screen, or play action. If the Midshipmen try and take Makhi Hughes out of the winning formula for the Green Wave, how much does Craddock turn the dial the other way?

On the other side of the ball, this is not your father’s Navy offense. Keenan Reynolds does not work here, anymore. There are plenty of elements of the traditional motion-heavy triple option Midshipmen offense that you will recognize, but new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic has done a masterful job of modernizing what had become a stagnant scheme. They still may not throw the ball more than 13-15 times per game, but when they do, they’re going for kill shots, they’re going for game-changing or game-ending explosives. Quarterback Blake Horvath’s average depth of target is 13.0, on the year. A remarkable 31.6% of his attempts have been 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Given the still-present tremendous focus on the running game, it’s usually via play action that Cronic tries to scheme up an explosive opportunity for Horvath. Expect a ton of 22 and 13 personnel (the first number reflects the number of backs on the field and the second number reflects the number of tight ends on the field), with just one receiver. True to form, Nathan Kent is the only wide receiver to have amassed more than 5 targets, this season, while upback Eli Heidenreich paces the team with 43 (30 catches, 556 yards, 5 touchdowns). Most of his big plays have come from a lack of discipline by a defender, sucked into a run action, until it’s too late.

Horvath has the most carries on the team, with 123, and on those he has amassed 914 yards (7.4 yards per attempt and 13 touchdowns, but has been tagged with 11 fumbles by PFF, most of which have come on botched exchanges running the option). Backs Alex Tecza, Daba Fofana, Heidenreich, and Chatman have all totaled over 40 carries, and all have yards per attempt averages between 4.5 and 7.2. Truly, the rushing attack has been strong – when filtering out sacks, they average 5.8 yards per carry. That has translated into 34.0 points per game (20th best in the nation), 6.6 yards per play (12th best ) .570 points per play (7th best), and 391 yards per game (57th best).

Is it hyperbole to call this the biggest game of the Jon Sumrall era, to date? I don’t think so. He came here on a mission to win conference championships and to make the College Football Playoff. Losing on Saturday would eliminate any possibility of the latter and muddy the waters tremendously, as to the former. “Great moments are born from great opportunities,” Herb Brooks famously told the 1980 USA Men’s Hockey team ahead of their semi-final against the Soviet Union. Boy oh boy is that what Tulane has in front of them, Saturday.

Prediction: I have not wrestled with a prediction this much, all season. The bet here is that the Green Wave are a hair better where it counts; in the red zone, in the turnover margin, and on those weighty third and fourth downs. Tulane 28-24