Tulane @ No. 13 Ole Miss Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

"And here...we...go..." -Heath Ledger's Joker in The Dark Knight (2008)

Your Tulane Green Wave are 3-0 for the first time since 2022, have beaten multiple Power Conference schools in a single season for the first time since 2022, and now seek their first win against a ranked opponent since the Cotton Bowl, to conclude the 2022 season. The Green Wave entered this season with three Power Conference schools on their schedule (thanks, Troy) amongst their four non-conference games. Each of the four non-conference games were to be referred by officials from our opponent's conference (thanks, Troy x2 and thanks Rick, x2), including today, when SEC Officials will take the field at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium for kickoff at 2:30 p.m. CT (ESPN, 106.7 The Ticket).

Three up, three down.

And now the objectively best of that bunch awaits the Wave in Oxford, Mississippi.

The Rebels are also 3-0 (2-0 in SEC play) and have climbed to No. 13 in the AP Poll, up from No. 21 during August's preseason release. They have been forced to play multiple quarterbacks due to an injury to starter Austin Simmons, and still are 8th in the FBS in points per game and 14th in points per play. Under Kiffin, the Rebels have won 14 of their last 15 home games, dating back to the beginning of the 2023 season, with the sole loss over that stretch being Kentucky in last season's SEC opener.

Trinidad Chambliss made his first FBS start last week in a 41-35 win over Arkansas last week. The Ferris State (Division III) transfer was 21/29 on 33 dropbacks, completing 72.4% of his passes (79.3% adjusted completion percentage) for 353 yards. Kiffin put Chambliss in a wonderful position to deliver the ball to eligible receivers with a position to generate yards after the catch. While Chambliss' yards per attempt was a striking 12.2, his average depth of target was just 8.0. A full 62.9% of his attempts were short of 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

While Chambliss doesn't have the arm talent that Simmons does, he is just as much of a factor in the running game, if not more so. Against Arkansas, Chambliss had 16 carries for 58 yards and 2 scores. Notably, only 3 of those 16 attempts were scrambles. Kiffin is thought of as a pass-happy maniac, in large part because he modernized the Alabama offense and took them into the 21st century, and because his teams have been very good, historically, at capitalizing on shot plays down the field. But the data is clear -- among 136 FBS schools, the Rebels have the 29th highest percentage of designed rushing attempts (58.3% of their offensive snaps). Last year, with a quarterback that ended up being a 2025 1st round draft selection of the New York Giants, they still called a designed run on 52.6% of their snaps.

Leading the way out of the backfield is Kewan Lacy, who has totaled 61 carries on 93 snaps through the team's first 3 games, piling up 290 yards (4.8 yards per attempt, of which 3.41 yards per attempt came after contact) and 5 touchdowns without (yet) putting the ball on the ground. Damien Taylor has the next highest snap and carry count out of the backfield, with far lower figures of 18 and 14, respectively. Off to the NFL are receivers Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins, but Harrison Wallace, III has entered the picture and has already become a focal point of the offense. The Penn State transfer has been targeted 9, 7 and 10 times through the Rebels first 3 games (26, total), while catching 15 passes for 339 yards and 2 touchdowns. He lines up outside about 82% of the time, so Joker Johnson and E'Zaiah Shine will have their hands full.

The Rebels have not been as excellent on defense, however, and have fought through some injuries there, as well. They allowed 35 points to Kentucky in the Grove, last Saturday, and the Razorbacks were inside the 30 with a chance to score the game-tying touchdown (PAT pending) with under 2 minutes to play when linebacker T.J. Dottery stripped a fumble that all but sealed the Ole Miss win. Dottery, an off-ball linebacker, is one of the Rebels better healthy defenders and a returning starter. Out of 136 FBS schools, the Rebels have the 112th best average of yards per carry allowed, at 5.4 yards per. They've counterbalanced that by allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt, which is the 33rd best such average in the country. The Rebels are allowing a middling 37.2% conversion rate on 3rd down, where the Green Wave will need to be efficient and keep the distances short, today.

Against Duke, Tulane played a total of 29 second and third downs. Just 3 of those downs were played with longer than 10 yards to go. Staying ahead of the sticks, staying in downs and distances where the Wave can be credibly two-dimensional is key. Post-snap RPOs and play-action aren't effective on 3rd and 13, but they sure as heck are on 3rd and 3. That will be a major focus for Tulane -- staying in those positions and insulating themselves as much as possible for a big, athletic, fast Ole Miss front. The Rebels are averaging 15 pressures a game and are led by edge rusher Kam Franklin with 10 and interior defensive lineman Will Echoles with 7. Be on the lookout for another interior defensive lineman, Zxavian Harris, who has 5 and 2 sacks, already.

Prediction: 38-28 Ole Miss