Tulane @ Temple Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

Not in 1970, not in 1973, not in 1998, not in 2022, 2023, or 2024 was Tulane anywhere as close to winning a national championship in football as they are right now, on the morning of November 22, 2025. This is, without question, the closest the Green Wave have been to such a goal since Pearl Harbor, and maybe ever. On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff Committee ranked Tulane 24th, and did not include any other "Group of 5" conference schools in their rankings.

In other words, if Tulane (8-2, 5-1) wins today in Philadelphia (2:45 pm CT, ESPNU, 106.7 The Ticket) and at home next Saturday against Charlotte, they will most certainly still be the highest ranked American Conference team in the CFP rankings, meaning they would then host the conference championship game on Friday, December 5. Win the conference championship game and they would most certainly still be the 5th highest ranked conference champion, come Selection Sunday, which would mean that they are College Football Playoff bound. From there, win four straight football games against four of the very top teams in the country, and the College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy will be displayed in the Wilson Center before Mardi Gras. Now, we can debate the likelihood of different aspects of the above, but that's a conversation for another time. What matters is that Tulane controls its own destiny to accomplish all of it. They don't need other teams to lose around the country, they don't need a ton of outside breaks. They, simply put, control their own destiny to win the National Championship, at this point, which makes today the most important game in school history. As amazing as the 2022 Cotton Bowl season was, with only four teams invited to the playoff that year, the Green Wave were never in contention, then. But they are now.

However, it needs to be said that with three other teams in the American who have just one conference loss, a slip up today or next Saturday would not only mean that the College Football Playoff is off the table, but participation in the Conference Championship Game would be, too. Did I mention that today is the most important game in school history? I did? Well, it bears repeating.

I express all of the above not to look ahead, or to make a mountain out of a molehill. To the contrary, hopefully that simply provides some insight into the gravity of this moment. And while the outside noise is loud, and will likely only get louder, remember that we all dreamed of having opportunities like this. I am 35 years old and I spent over two decades of my life daydreaming and craving for the Wave to one day be in a situation such as this one. Many of you wished for the same thing for many more decades than that. So no matter what happens over the next eight hours, eight days, and eight weeks, let's all appreciate the gravity of the moment, how far we've come, how close we are, and let's be where our feet our. Jimmy, Michael, Tim and I are so proud and thankful that you are willing to have us along for the ride, with you.

Standing in Tulane's way, today, are the 5-5 (3-3) Temple Owls, who have exceeded most anyone's expectations in year one under new head coach K.C. Keeler. Temple is coming off of a bye, has their senior day today, and figures to be a hungry squad needing either a win today or win in Denton next week against 9-1 North Texas to make a bowl game. Keeler had been the head coach at Sam Houston State from 2014-2025, and (tell me the world isn't a small place) was the direct successor there to Willie Fritz, who departed following the 2013 season for Georgia Southern, before of course departing Georgia Southern for Tulane following the 2015 season. Prior to this 2025 year withN Keeler, the Owls had gone five consecutive seasons without winning more than 3 games, and last made a bowl game in 2019. They have also not won this many conference games (3) since 2019. Coming into the year, Temple had an over/under win total of just 3.5, tied for the second lowest in the American ahead of only Charlotte (2.5, who sit at 1-9 and need wins over the Georgia Bulldogs today and the Tulane Green Wave next week to top that O/U, but that's a topic for next week).

The Owls are quarterbacked by Evan Simon, who has led an offense and passing attack that has been hyper-efficient on early downs. Simon has an adjusted completion percentage of 72.8%, is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with an average depth of target of 8.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He has posted an insane touchdown/interception ratio of 22/1, with a turnover-worthy play percentage of just 2.4%, which is in line with his interception total. In raw numbers, he has had just 7 turnover-worthy plays across 254 dropbacks, this season. Also of concern is that he is averaging 2.55 seconds from snap to release, which is the 15th fastest such average out of the 105 FBS quarterbacks who have taken 50% or more of their teams snaps. Tulane's pass rush has struggled to get home at times against similarly ranked quarterbacks this season, and the secondary has been picked on for stretches (like by ECU's Katin Houser, who is 1st in the FBS in that category, or by FAU's Caden Veltkamp, who is 5th in the FBS in that category) or for entire games (like by UTSA's Owen McCown, who is 3rd in the FBS in that category).

Now, I mentioned that Temple has been hyper-efficient on early downs. I did not say that they have been hyper-efficient at all times. The Owls are converting 34% of their 3rd down opportunities (104th best average, nationally), but they have converted 12 of 15 4th down attempts, thus far. Their early down (1st and 2nd) expected points added per play is 25th best in the FBS, while their third down expected points added per play is just 100th. Overall, they rank as the 9th best team in expected points added per dropback but the the 121st best team in expected points per carry, while they are 22nd in passing success rate and 94th in rushing success rate.

Where the Owls thrive, of particular concern for the Wave, are in turnover margin per game (+1.1, which is the 7th best mark in the country), net starting field position, where Temple ranks 28th and where Tulane ranks 1st, but the numbers suggest it may not be as large of an opponent-relative advantage for Tulane that it has been, all year, and in penalties per game, where the Owls have committed the 20th fewest per game, on the season. On defense, Temple has been mediocre-to-poor. They are the 79th best defense in net expected points added per play, 76th in success rate allowed, and 102nd in net expected points added per drive. Tulane should be able to have a full menu, offensively, and will need to capitalize in the red zone in order to earn a comfortable, sweat-free win, today.

As Jimmy Ordeneaux noted on the FTW Cast pregame show, sponsored by Scandurro & Layrisson, LLC, a key is going to be making sure that the historically and statistically poor Temple rushing attack remains ineffective and that the Owls are forced to be one-dimensional, both because of the applicable down and distances and the game script (i.e. the score). In many ways, this is a perfect test to see how far Tulane has come since some imperfect play in October, as this particular opponent does well many of the things that the Wave have struggled with, at times (penalties, turnover margin, quick/efficient passing attacks).

Prediction: Tulane 31-20