Tulane @ UAB Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

Photo Credit: Parker Waters

After drubbing South Florida 45-10, the Tulane Green Wave (3-2, 1-0) have one more game before their first of two byes, this season, as they travel to Birmingham to face the struggling UAB Blazers (1-3, 0-1), Saturday at 12:00 CST on ESPN+. The Blazers, who are still seeking their first FBS victory of the season, are absolutely reeling, coming off of a 41-18 home loss to Navy, out of a bye. Year 2 under former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer has not gone particularly smoothly, after Year 1 showed some level of promise. The Blazers went just 4-8 in 2023, but did win 3 AAC games, and as many will remember, led Tulane 20-7 with a minute to play in the 2nd quarter, before ultimately running out of gas and falling to the Green Wave 35-23, at Yulman Stadium.

That game, of course, was started at quarterback by Jacob Zeno, a Baylor transfer. Zeno was rather impressive, picking apart the Green Wave defense in the short and intermediate areas, finishing 27/35 for 236 yards, helping the Blazers put up 434 yards of offense. Zeno was termed as "questionable" by Dilfer on Wednesday of this week, with an injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder that required him to leave the stadium in a sling, following the Navy loss. While his status has not yet been updated publicly at the time of this writing, it did not sound as though Dilfer was particularly optimistic.

If Zeno can't play, then Jalen Kitna, the son of a different former NFL quarterback, Jon Kitna, will draw his first career start. Kitna transferred to UAB after originally enrolling at the University of Florida, before some legal issues popped up. A member of the recruiting class of 2021, Kitna was rated a 3-star recruit by 247, and was their 80th highest ranked quarterback, that year. Dilfer insists that little will change with the UAB offense, should Kitna draw the start, which makes sense; the Blazers attempt to shorten games by leaning into the run game and attempting shorter, high-percentage, "safe," throws, when they go to the air. Despite being outscored by the three FBS opponents that they've faced by a combined measure of 110-51, UAB has called a designed running play on 54% of their snaps, which is the 52nd highest such percentage nationally, out of 134 FBS qualifiers. Given the repeated negative gamescript that they've been presented with, one would have thought that percentage would be much lower.

Through 4 games, Lee Beebe and Isaiah Jacobs are the only UAB running backs to see more than 10 carries. Beebe has turned 57 totes into 256 yards (4.5 yards per attempt, and over 2.8 yards per attempt after contact), with 3 scores, while Isaiah Jacobs has generated 162 yards on 41 carries, good for an average of 4.0 yards per attempt and 2.4 yards per attempt after contact. Notably, the two have combined to fumble 3 times, which has been a consistent theme for this UAB offense, which has 8 giveaways and 12 sacks allowed through those 4 games. The 12 sacks are especially staggering, as only 17 FBS teams have allowed more sacks per game than the Blazers (3.0). Unfortunately for Dilfer, even with Zeno, the offense has not been proficient or efficient; out of those 134 FBS qualifiers, UAB ranks 108th in points per game and 113th in points per play.

Amare Thomas (24) and Kam Shanks (24), along with Beebe (15) are the only members of the UAB offense to have received more than 10 targets, to date. Thomas has generated 122 yards on 14 receptions while Shanks has been more efficient, turning 19 catches into 163. Dilfer does a nice job of moving them both around, and has tried to find creative ways to get them on linebackers, from the slot. Neither player has spent more than 40% of their snaps out wide. Perhaps most telling about the players, the UAB passing game, and the offense as a whole is where Thomas and Shanks have been targeted. Neither player has an average depth of target above 6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (5.9 and 5.7, respectively). Again, this reinforces the idea that UAB will try and hit on short passes, possibly because they feel unable to connect/protect on longer-developing intermediate/deep routes. They did just get receiver Iverson Hooks back from injury, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be and/or whether he'll be on a limited snap count of some kind.

While the Blazer offense has left much to be desired through September, the defense is worse, statistically. UAB is allowing 36.7 points per game, which is the 115th best such average in the country. Even worse, opposing offenses have not struggled much or been inefficient in scoring those 36.7 points/game, as the Blazers are allowing the 10th most points per play, nationally. Opponents are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the ground and 8.9 yards per attempt through the air, which are the 111th and 114th lowest such averages in the FBS, respectively. It's not a unit completely devoid of talent, however, as edge rusher Desmond Little leads the team with 15 pressures, having turned them into 3 sacks, 3 hits, and 9 hurries. I'd expect some doubles and chips on Little, because aside from him, the Blazers are averaging less than 10 pressures, per game (39). Further, while the pass defense has been terrible as a whole (as it is a weak-link system), corners Colby Dempsey and Kelvin Hill have been solid. Enemy quarterbacks have ratings of 58.8 and 39.6 when targeting them, respectively. As you might expect, after learning that, every safety, slot corner and linebacker that has played at least 50 snaps is allowing a passer rating of at least 86.0.

Prediction: The matchup is hard not to like, especially if/when Joe Craddock gets some of these Tulane receivers in favorable matchups, possibly out of the slot. It's hard to see the Blazers slow down or stifle the running attack of Hughes and Thompson, and this should be a banner day for Mario Williams. With the Wave clearly having found something in their rotations on the front and at safety, last week, I'll take my chances against any backup quarterback in the country. Tulane 42-10