UTSA Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

During the late Willie Fritz years at Tulane, I always loved getting to play some teams in particular teams in our conference. Teams who had beaten us more than their fair share during my time spent following the football program (which goes back to about 2000 or 2001, when I was ten). Houston had beaten us 12 of 13 times from 2003 at Tad Gormley until our upset win at Yulman in 2017. UCF had beaten us in 10 of 12 games until the 2022 Conference Championship, also at Yulman Stadium. Memphis, for example, beat us 11 straight times across two different stints as conference mates from 2000 until the 2018 Green Wave win at Yulman Stadium.

PS I was right last week that we own that team on Friday nights. 2018, 2023, 2025, 2026.

Anyway, it was a really fun, rewarding, and frankly cathartic feeling to enjoy wins against some of those programs that we owed a little something something to, once we  had found our footing in those later years with Coach Fritz. And as we’ve won 46 games over the last 4.5 seasons, that is something we don’t get to regularly experience anymore, in large part because we’ve been 30-4 in conference play since the start of 2022.

Chasing that feeling is part of why winning on the road at Memphis last season was so satisfying – they had wrecked any chance of making the playoff or hosting the conference championship game in 2024 by demolishing us as a significant underdog on Thanksgiving night, that season. Beating Army at home last fall, too, felt good after they smoked us in the 2024 conference championship game 35-14 in 17 degree weather in West Point, NY.

Tonight we have one of those opportunities, as our Green Wave (3-3, 1-0) host the UTSA Roadrunners (6-1, 3-0) who are the clear favorites to win the American Conference at the moment, and who annihilated our 2025 team at the Alamodome last October, 48-26, though obviously it was not that close. Tulane was favored by nearly a touchdown in the game, and then trailed 31-12 at halftime, en route to their second loss of the season.

It was clear from the pre-and-post game remarks of the two head coaches, Jon Sumrall and Jeff Traylor, that Traylor took some of Sumrall’s words personally and used them as motivation for his team. Coach Hall has not given Traylor, who is back for his seventh season in San Antonio, any such ammunition this week, but that doesn’t mean the Roadrunners won’t be ready to roll. UTSA, as I mentioned, has lost just once, and that was on the road in Austin against Texas. They’ve beaten Rice, USF and Navy to find themselves at 3-0 in league play, but this is just their second conference game away from the Alamodome, where Traylor is 37-6.

Also back for the Roadrunners is quarterback Owen McCown, who went 31/33 for 375 yards, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions, and was only pressured 5 times, taking 0 sacks against Tulane last fall. He’s having another great season, in 2026, as he is completing 69.4% of his passes with a yards per attempt average of 7.1, has thrown 10 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, and is only taking sacks on 12.8% of the dropbacks where he faces pressure. Just 7 of his 222 throws this season have been charted as “turnover-worthy plays” by PFF. McCown’s WR1, David Amador II, took an awkward fall against Navy last week and left the game, but Traylor confirmed this week that he’s good to go. He’s caught 36 of 49 targets this season (both lead the team) for 294 yards and a touchdown. His average depth of target is a very telling 4.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, so expect to see him be the target on slip screens, tunnel screens, and shallow crossers. They will work hard to manufacture touches for him, not that they struggled to get him the ball against our secondary last fall, as he finished with 10 receptions (on 10 targets) for 113 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he threw another on a trick play.

The Roadrunners team and program is built around offense, and to date in 2026, they’ve not been disappointed. They rank 48^th in points per play, 47^th in expected points added per pass, 10^th in expected points added per carry, 38^th in success rate on offense (but 3^rd in rushing success rate), 41^st in points per game, and 56^th in yards per play.

As indicated by being 10^th in expected points added per carry and 3^rd in success rate per carry (both out of 138 FBS teams), the Roadrunners have run the ball as explosively and consistently well as just about anyone in the country, to date. Gone is Robert Henry, Jr., but Will Henderson, who was the 1B of two-headed monster last season, remains. Henderson has totaled 560 yards on 95 carries (5.9 yards per attempt), 4 touchdowns, no fumbles, and 17 carries of 10 yards or more, through 7 games. Make no mistake, though, their passing game is the driver of the offense and they have been able to run so effectively because they force opponents into lighter boxes, and to be more spread out, which in turns makes run-fits a challenge for defenses.

The Green Wave offense should have an opportunity to build on their success from last week, and build on the positives that we saw from true freshman quarterback Trace Johnson, who will make his second career start, tonight. Out of those same 138 FBS teams, UTSA’s defense ranks 94^th in expected points added per pass allowed, 98^th  in expected points added per rush allowed, 99^th in success rate allowed on defense (and 118^th in success rate allowed in the running game). The Roadrunners rank 77^th in yards per play allowed (5.6), 88^th in points per play allowed, 90^th in points per game allowed, 98^th in yards per carry allowed (4.8), and 58^th in yards per pass attempt allowed.

Given the opponent, Tulane’s strengths, the possible functional limitations of playing a true freshman quarterback who has just 30 dropbacks so far in his career, I would not be remotely surprised to see the Green Wave try to slow the pace of the game way down if they can build a lead, exactly as they did in the second half, last week (the third quarter consumed a total of just 2.5 possessions, between Tulane and Memphis).

Through 7 games, UTSA has managed just 89 pressures and 7 sacks, so the Green Wave should be able to keep Johnson clean for a second week in a row. Last week against Memphis, he was pressured just 7 times and took only 1 sack. A similar result would be welcomed in a game that it feels like Tulane will have to score in the 30s to win. Then again, both Memphis and Army (who have already won on Thursday and Friday, this week) have produced a season-low point total against the Green Wave.

Prediction: 38-31, Tulane