Week 0 Betting Preview, by CORY AGULAR.
NOTE: This piece was written and updated on August 22th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Welcome back, bettors - it is officially Week 0, meaning a nice slate of matchups for us to get our feet wet before fully diving in.
For some background, I am not a professional bettor or handicapper, but someone who loves applying football analysis and data to the betting market and finding inefficiencies. Like any financial market, there is an inherent risk, so the goal is to explain the logic behind the picks rather than direct advice or giving “locks”. Additionally, there is always movement in the market, so lines posted here may not reflect the current reality. I advise always shopping for the best line. I will provide bet ranges where applicable.
In terms of wager size, I will be referencing units. A unit should be defined as your standard bet size. For instance, if you typically bet $20 on a game, 1 unit = 20 dollars. Increases or decreases in unit size are reflective of confidence or considering ROI.
During the season, this piece will mainly focus on Tulane and AAC matchups with some other key games sprinkled in. All that said, let’s discuss early-season betting approaches and get into Week 0.
Early Season Approach
Early season matchups are increasingly difficult to project in the transfer portal world due to the large amount of roster flux. This allows teams to fill holes in their roster while creating holes for others downstream. Add in coaching changes, and it feels a bit like roulette.
To make sense of the madness, I like to lean on Collin Wilson’s Transfer Activity & Returning Production (TARP) projections. Returning experience is a large factor in a team's success, so this metric helps synthesize the current roster and incoming transfers' projected production. Teams with higher TARP and coaching consistency will likely have to spend less time “figuring things out” early on.
In Tulane terms, we project negatively in QB TARP since we are replacing Michael Pratt, a highly productive player, with relatively inexperienced QBs in terms of game time. While the metric does not consider other factors like coaching changes, individual improvement, or schedule difficulty, it is a good starting point to understand the overall talent on a roster.
All that said, let’s dive into Week 0.
Tulane Notes
Tulane opened as -26.5 favorites against Southeastern on FanDuel on August 19th
Over/Under opened at 55.5, moved down to 53.5 as of Thursday
The lack of posted lines is reflective of Tulane’s unclear QB situation. Also see that reflected in the O/U dropping two points already
I would wait for more books to post lines to get a better sense of the market
AAC Matchups
No AAC matchups for Week 0.
Saturday 8/24
10) Florida State @ Georgia Tech (11 AM CST, ESPN) (Dublin, Ireland)
Line: -10.5 (-110) (FanDuel)
O/U: 55.5 (-108) (FanDuel)
Georgia Tech is listed as the home team here, but this is being played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. As such, there is no home-field advantage, and one must factor in the travel and hubbub surrounding the game, though it likely will have similar impacts on both teams.
The main change at FSU is at the quarterback position, with former Clemson and Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei now under center for the Seminoles. He brings in a ton of starting experience and should be more than capable of running this offense with plenty of talent at the skill positions and a head coach who knows how to manage an offense. (Side note: FSU will feature Senior Alabama transfer Roydell Williams at RB, a name that should be familiar to Tulane fans. No relation as far as I can tell).
Referring back to TARP projections, Florida State is returning 95% of their production on offense, with a high level of experience on the offensive line, including LT Darius Washington who was Pro Football Focus’ 12th best pass blocker last year. As a unit, they return with a combined 190 starts while posting the 5th best pass blocking grade last year, according to PFF.
Flipping over to Georgia Tech, the team has a new defensive coordinator in Tyler Santucci, who has experience coaching under Texas A&M HC Mike Elko. This will be his first time calling plays as DC, and the front seven will have a lot of new faces from the transfer portal (including two new starting linebackers). For a defense that struggled mightily against the run last year, breaking in an essentially new front seven against a talented FSU team will be challenging.
GT’s front seven uncertainty plays into FSU’s hands: DJ Uiagalelei has proven to be excellent on play-action passes. This is a fairly straightforward analysis; Georgia Tech’s inability to stop the run (2023 stats: 5.8 yards per carry, 2.6 yards before contact per attempt) will open up the play-action game.
This game originally opened at -14 with Georgia Tech receiving significant love from the market. There is justification for this as there is optimism around their returning QB Haynes King and skill position players like RB Jamal Haynes. The duo helped Georgia Tech to a top-25 PFF rushing grade last year.
GT is also well-coached. Brent Key gets a lot out of a roster with talent limitations, and he saved the program from what looked like a tailspin during the Geoff Collins era. This program has a lot of positive momentum heading into 2024.
However, when you peel back the layers, King is a bit turnover prone (16 interceptions) and relies heavily on big plays. Those big plays are less likely to come against a talented FSU defense that was exceptional at preventing explosive plays last season. The defense remains a concern, and with the number of new players and a new defensive voice, it will take some time for the unit to gel and there is no indication that their running defense will be improved.
Give me FSU’s experience and talent versus a dangerous, but flawed Georgia Tech team.
NOTE: As the first CFB matchup with a marquee team playing, I fully expect FSU to get up to -14 or more as the public will likely heavily back FSU below two touchdowns. If you see -11 out there, grab it now.
Rainy Irish weather does not project to be a factor in this game as of writing.
Pick: FSU -10.5 (Bet to -11.5) (1 unit)
SMU @ Nevada (7 PM EST, CBSSN)
Line: -24.5 (-110) (FanDuel)
O/U: 56 (-110) (FanDuel)
Turning to our former conference mates, SMU starts its new chapter in the ACC visiting Nevada. SMU has been as high as a 27.5 point favorite, but recent buy-back has moved them down to a 24 point favorite.
Looking at the matchup, SMU seems poised to run away with it (as is reflected in the line). The Mustangs have one of the highest TARP numbers in the country, and their defensive performance took a step up in 2023.
With Nevada, they play their first game under new HC Jeff Choate, who arrives from Texas after a stint as Co-DC and after previously serving as Montana State’s HC. He inherits a squad with a neutral TARP score.
My approach for betting on this matchup will be watching the market to see if a total of 59 gets posted.
The total sits between two key numbers for totals in CFB, 55 and 59. If the number steams to 59, I will be looking to play a .5 unit on the under. I am less bullish on this happening than I was earlier in the week when we saw steam close to 57.5 points.
The rationale is that while SMU seems like a team that will steamroll Nevada, their totals seem to be a bit inflated on the road, as they have gone under in 8 of Rhett Lashlee’s 13 road games since 2022.
Another favorable angle for the under is new Nevada OC Matt Lubick. He is a former Kansas analyst who will look to implement a similar offensive style; last year Kansas was outside the top 100 in terms of tempo. It behooves Nevada to control the ball and limit potential mistakes in a mismatch like this.
Nevada cannot be much worse defensively than they were last season, and under new defensive management, you would hope they can make some improvements. There is essentially no direction for that unit to go but up.
If we get a 59, it will likely come on Saturday as the public will start putting more money in the market.
Another angle to consider is SMU QB Preston Stone and his return from a broken left fibula injury. Stone figures to play a limited number of drives before handing it over to capable backup QB Kevin Jennings.
I do think it’s highly likely SMU covers this spread; however, SMU is not incentivized to show too much offensively, and depending on how the game plays out, the QB situation may lead to some wonkiness in terms of covering the line. If you really want to back SMU in this matchup, I would lean towards their 1st half team total over, which is currently available at 21.5.
Pick: Wait for Under 59 (.5 unit)
Lean: SMU 1H Team Total Over 21.5
Delaware State @ Hawaii (10 PM CST)
Line: -38.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
O/U: 57.5 (-105) (FanDuel)
If you are a college football bettor, you have a special place in your heart for Hawaii. Not necessarily because they have made you a ton of money, but because we love wagering on some late-night football.
For article purposes, I do not have an official play (full disclosure: I bet Hawaii -35.5 in July but do not recommend it past that number).
I point out Hawaii because this is a team I am very interested in backing early in the season, particularly next week against UCLA. If Hawaii plays well, which I expect them to, I can see the line moving in favor of Hawaii.
I have already invested in Hawaii +14.5 in that matchup, and I still love it at +13.5. UCLA is in disarray after losing Chip Kelly as HC and replacing him with a coach who has raised more questions than answers. Also, if you believe the knocks on UCLA OC Eric Bienemy’s game management skills, I see UCLA struggling to cover this number in Hawaii. Beyond UCLA’s instability, there is ample reason to love what former star Hawaii QB and Head Coach Timmy Chang is cooking with the Rainbow Warriors on offense.
Pick: Consider Hawaii +13.5 vs. UCLA (Week 1) (1 unit)
That wraps up the Week 0 preview. With a small slate of games, it was easy to hone in on a few picks, but moving forward a lot of content will be focused on Tulane, our AAC conference mates, and a handful of games that interest me across the country.
Below I will track my official picks. This week, FSU is my only official pick, but I will also track the Waiting On/Leans as a separate record. Best of luck!
Summary
Official Picks: FSU -10.5 (up to -11.5)
Waiting On/Leans: SMU/Nevada Under 59, SMU 1H Team Total Over 21.5
Record: 0-0
Cory the Capper!!