BY CORY AGULAR
NOTE: This piece was written on August 28th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's Official Picks: FSU -10.5
Last Week: 0 - 1
Season: 0 - 1
Of course, a bad start to the year. It became apparent early on that DJ Uiagalelei’s inability to throw downfield accurately, or at all frankly, limited FSU’s ability to move the ball. Equally as concerning, the Seminoles averaged only 3.2 yards per carry on the ground. For GT, an efficient running team, the game script certainly played into their hands, allowing them to cover the spread and win as a significant underdog.
Thankfully, we have a full slate of Week 1 games to analyze this week. We will dive into Tulane’s matchup vs. Southeastern Louisiana, other AAC matchups and a couple picks from around the country.
Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane (-26.5, O/U 53.5)
(Thursday 8/29, 7 PM)
Like most Tulane fans, there is curiosity about what this new team will look like with a new coaching staff, a new starting QB, and a bevy of transfers on both sides of the ball. Simply, we don’t know what we don’t know at this point, and the sportsbooks seem to agree.
As of writing, this game has only been posted on a handful of sportsbooks; obviously, they are worried about posting a stale line. The line has gone as low as 23.5 on FanDuel before being moved back up to 26.5. It is currently -27 or -27.5 elsewhere on books like DraftKings.
I am hesitant to use metrics like TARP in handicapping this game. Similarly, the data for FCS teams is always somewhat limited, and their roster construction is harder to project. There are also numerous lingering questions:
With Kansas State next week, how much will Tulane show offensively and will that limit scoring?
Which QBs, and how much will they play?
How quickly will we start to see the second unit? (assuming the game follows the projected script)
How quickly can the new defense pieces gel?
Reviewing some recent data from Troy games scares me off laying a full game spread bet. In his opening matchups against FCS teams at Troy, Sumrall’s teams either struggled to get going or started to give up points in the 4th quarter. Both of these are not conducive to covering a full game spread, so it gives me pause despite believing that Tulane is the superior team. In 2022, Troy defeated their FCS opponent Alabama A&M by a score of 38-17, and in 2023, Troy defeated their FCS opponent Stephen F. Austin by a score of 48-30.
Obviously, Sumrall is a competent coach, and these games are subject to weird variations within them. However, the points surrendered in the 4th quarter indicate to me he is not necessarily that concerned with covering the spread or the final score. Some coaches prioritize this way more than others (in many cases to please boosters), so it is a factor when handicapping games (Luke Fickell is a prime example of a coach who does not run up the score ever, something to consider for Wisconsin games).
This Tulane team contains more talent across the roster than at Troy, but there are too many questions to lay a full game spread bet. If they offered 1st half spread bets, I would like Tulane 1H up to -14, but none are available as of writing.
I predict a relatively easy Tulane win, and I would pick them to cover the spread if forced, but there is too much uncertainty to attach money on top of my emotional investment. Limited market + too much uncertainty = Pass.
Pick: Enjoy a Tulane Win
AAC Matchups
Temple at Oklahoma (-42 / O/U 58)
Friday 8/30, 6 PM
Temple projects as one of the worst FBS teams this year, with their secondary projected to be exceptionally poor. They will also have to replace their starting QB EJ Warner who transferred to Rice this offseason - none of their replacement options inspire much confidence.
I have questions about how Temple will manage to score in this matchup, leaving a pretty clear path for Oklahoma to cover this spread.
Oklahoma opens its first season as a member of the SEC. There are indications that their offensive line will play late into the game for experience purposes.
In their opener last year, Oklahoma defeated Arkansas State 73-0, so they are willing to boat race inferior competition.
I am generally high on this Oklahoma team (I bet their over 7.5 win total in the summer). Their season ended with a bad bowl loss last year, so I think they will want to start the year hot to set the tone.
Pick: OU -42 (Play to -42)
FAU at Michigan State (-14 / O/U 46.5)
Saturday, 8/31 7 PM
FAU is in its second season under HC Tom Herman. The team lacks depth and talent, and has historically been poor on the road: FAU has lost 20 of its last 21 non-conference away games.
Michigan State’s program has been in turmoil this decade, but they made an excellent hire in Jonathan Smith who turned around Oregon State in his previous stop. This seems like a good fit - Michigan State will never have the talent advantage over the traditional Big 10 powers - and much like Oregon State, he is coaching the “little brother” school in terms of perception.
While this is my second double-digit spread bet on a P4 vs. the AAC, nothing on the FAU side makes me believe they will be competitive in East Lansing this weekend. I think we are getting a relatively low number on Michigan State based on their recent history, so I am comfortable with taking the Spartans and points here.
Pick: Michigan State - 14 (Play to -14)
James Madison at Charlotte (-8.5 / O/U 50.5)
Saturday 8/31, 7 PM
Well, if you have not heard yet, Charlotte HC Biff Poggi gave himself an “F-” when grading himself on his team’s training camp. Why? According to him, his team is quite banged up : “I’m not great in math, but it’s getting close to 50 percent (of starters injured)”. I do not know if he is telling the exact truth, but the line did adjust from JMU -6.5 to -8.5 after his press conference.
Charlotte projects as a team that will get better as the year goes on, but injuries in addition to key transfers needing to produce immediately indicate that they will struggle to start the season.
James Madison has a new head coach in Bob Chesney after Curt Cignetti moved on to Indiana. I am really high on Chesney who had tremendous success at FCS Holy Cross. He inherits a JMU team that has gone 19-4 in the last 2 seasons.
Chesney is extremely committed to running the ball (Holy Cross ran 68% of the time last year). Combine a discombobulated Charlotte roster and JMU’s rushing, and I see this game going under with minimal offensive contribution from Charlotte.
Pick: Under 48.5 (Play to 48)
Other Notes
Not an official pick, but I think Tulsa has a good shot of covering the -31.5 versus Northwestern State this week. Not because Tulsa is particularly good or improving, but mostly because Northwestern State is essentially re-starting their program after canceling their season in October of last year due to the shooting death of a player; this also led to some reporting on the program's lack of resources and unusual living situations for players. As such, this feels like a spot where Tulsa might want to take advantage of a program trying to reestablish itself. This is one of Tulsa’s best shots at a big win this year.
The remainder of the conference is in a similar spot to Tulane with FCS opponents to open up - not a ton of value there. North Texas faces South Alabama, but I do not have a good read on either of those teams.
National Coverage
Here are some quick hit picks; in the future, I hope to have more thorough write-ups on these matchups, but in the interest of getting this published I will keep it short and sweet this week:
UNLV (+2.5) at Houston (8/31, 6 PM)
You might think this a bet based somewhat on pettiness (you would be somewhat correct), but UNLV is a team I am quite high on this year. While Houston certainly upgraded in the coaching department, it will take time to adjust the roster to fit his style. Additionally, we have seen enough low-scoring, conservative gamescripts from Houston’s coach that the game will likely be close even if Houston is in the lead and playing well. I love UNLV as a road underdog this week. Pick: UNLV +2.5
UCLA at Hawaii (+14) (8/31, 6:30 PM)
I mentioned this last week, but I like Hawaii to cover the +14 points against UCLA. Hawaii will be good offensively with Brayden Schraeger under center again for his 2nd year, and there is strong continuity with head coach Timmy Chang.
Hawaii did not cover against Delaware State, but the game was heavily weather-impacted by a Hurricane near Hawaii, causing wind/rain issues. This helped the line shift to +14 after some buyback/overreaction to Hawaii’s performance.
UCLA’s coaching staff took a massive downgrade this year when Chip Kelly left for Ohio State. Traveling to Hawaii for an opener adds a layer of complication for the new staff. I am not a fan of their OC hire (Eric Bienemy) either. Pick: Hawaii +14
Summary
That wraps it up for this week. Unfortunately, Tulane having an FCS opponent limits our opportunities this week, but next week should offer us some more interesting opportunities to back Tulane.
Official Picks:
Oklahoma -42
Michigan State -14
JMU/Charlotte Under 48.5
UNLV +2.5
Hawaii +14
Lean: Tulsa -31.5
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