BY CORY AGULAR
Week 10 Betting Preview
NOTE: This piece was written on October 31st, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's (Week 10) Official Picks:
UNLV +3.5 (L)
Tulane/UNT Over 68.5 (W)
Navy/Notre Dame 1H Over 26.5 (W)
Last Week Record: 2-1
Season Record: 20-15
Continuing to stay in the green with a nice 2-1 week. The UNLV spread was a bit tough to swallow as they made some mistakes that ultimately reflected in the final scoreline. A missed FG and an interception inside their own territory leading to Boise points right before the half really hurt. Also, Boise QB Maddux Maddox came to play, something we have not seen on tape until this game.
The Navy/ND and Tulane reads were relatively sweat-free, and they covered with some distance left in the half/game. Let’s keep the positive momentum rolling.
Tulane at Charlotte (+14.5)(O/U 56.5)
(Thursday 10/31, 6:30 PM)
Many elements of what made me like the over last week against UNT are still in play this week, but mainly due to Charlotte’s defense. It is fairly obvious what Tulane will want to do after last week - run the ball.
And they should - Charlotte has proven to provide little resistance to opponents’ rush offenses. Here is some of their greatest hits:
In their last 5 games, Charlotte has allowed over 200 yards rushing 3 times
11 rushing TDs were scored during that same 5 game span
101st nationally in defensive rush success rate
111th nationally in quality drives allowed
Not to be outdone, the 49ers offense is statistically worse from a production standpoint nationally.
Last in the AAC in rushing yards per game (126)
100th nationally in rush success rate, 116th in passing success rate
Bottom 10 nationally in line yards and havoc allowed
Charlotte’s offense is highly dependent on chaos and big plays. They are not efficient at all, but capable of creating big plays. Conversely, that leads to a lot of turnovers offensively. Tulane has proven that they can and will force turnovers given the opportunity.
Despite all of this, the 49ers almost managed to beat Memphis last week, however, Memphis ended up pulling it out in the waning moments of the game. From a handicapping perspective, that is a tough spot to come off of on a short week, especially with one of the best G5 programs coming to town.
I am not going to overthink this one. Tulane is a superior squad and their strengths match up incredibly well against Charlotte. Unlike UNT, they do not have the offense to go blow for blow with Tulane, and as long as Tulane limits the big play, they should be able to comfortably control the game.
I am playing the 1H Tulane spread. I like the full game as well, but I would prefer to avoid any backdoor covers in a game where I think Tulane will want early control and to milk the clock out a bit.
Pick: Tulane 1H -7.5
AAC Matchups
As I mentioned last week, these teams are extremely hard to get a read on - Charlotte almost beat Memphis and Tulsa came back from 42-17 down to beat UTSA. As such, I really want to avoid most of these teams from a betting perspective. That said, I have one additional AAC play this week.
Navy at Rice (+11)
Navy is coming into this matchup a bit deflated after losing their playoff hopes essentially against Notre Dame. Going into an empty Rice Stadium is probably not the most energizing environment, either.
Navy QB Blake Horvath suffered a thumb injury last week. As an option QB, this has implications for the running game.
Rice QB EJ Warner should be back for this game after missing last week vs. UConn.
Rice outgained Tulane in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter but ultimately doomed by their -5 turnover differential.
Navy still ranks in the top 10 in red-zone scoring rate (on offense and defense) and a +6 turnover margin. These types of statistics are often unsustainable and meet regression at some point.
Rice has trouble running the ball, but Navy is not very good at stopping it either (122nd in rush success rate). Could be a get-right spot for the run offense.
Navy has largely benefited from a strength of schedule currently sitting at 132nd nationally.
Rice just fired their head coach this week. I view this as a positive as they may be a little more creative offensively and more willing to take risks.
Fun fact from The Action Network: since 2005, only Kansas State has been more profitable than Rice in conference play at home (44-28-4) (61.1%) against the spread.
Rice has already faced Army this year, meaning they have seen and prepared for an option offense already. This will not be as disruptive in terms of normal game prep.
Picks: Rice +11 (play to +10.5)
National Coverage
Only one national game from me this week, but I really like this position.
Just on the surface, giving me +3.5 points for the home team in this situation is immediately tempting with two teams with similar talent levels in a rivalry game.
Ohio State has two of the most talented running backs in the nation in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, but they have shown signs of inefficiency. Last week against Nebraska they ran 20 times for 54 yards.
Unfortunately for OSU, Penn State has one of the best defensive lines in the nation, particularly against the run (allowing 3.8 YPC on the year). They are near the top in nearly any rush defense statistic.
This will force Will Howard to win the game with his arm, something that comes with a bit of a risk. Howard has 9 big-time throws this year but is brought down by 8 turnover-worthy plays.
Penn State is also effective as a pass defense, at #30 nationally in pass success rate defensively.
Penn State is not an explosive offense, but they are efficient. QB Drew Allar is a big reason why they are one of the highest-rated teams in terms of offensive success rate. Allar currently is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt.
If Penn State limits turnovers and explosive plays, their offense is capable of moving the ball on Ohio State’s defense, which does not grade particularly well in the trenches. Controlling the clock will be huge for the Nittany Lions.
I see this being a close game for the reasons outlined above. Give me the home underdog.
Pick: Penn State +3.5
Summary
Roll Wave and Good Luck!
Official Picks:
Tulane 1H -7.5
Rice +11 (play to +10.5)
Penn State +3.5
Season Record: 20-15
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