BY CORY AGULAR
Week 12 Betting Preview
NOTE: This piece was written on November 15th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's (Week 11) Official Picks:
Tulane (-26.5) (Play to -27) (W)
North Texas (+4.5) (L)
James Madison (-16) (W)
Jacksonville State (-10) (L)
Last Week Record: 2 - 2
Season Record: 23 - 19
We broke even last week with Tulane and JMU taking care of business easily. North Texas stings as they had multiple turnovers inside the red zone. I would never bet on North Texas only scoring 3 points, but Army continued their excellent fortune in turnovers last week.
All that said, we are still up on the year, and a new week brings new opportunities.
#25 Tulane at Navy (-7) (O/U 51.5)
Tulane heads to Annapolis as a 7-point favorite and with a lot of momentum after two convincing wins against AAC cellar dwellers. Navy, as we all know, is a completely different challenge given its offensive style and history of being a headache to face.
Navy also projects to have their largest crowd ever for a home game, with over 38,000 fans in attendance. This should be an electric atmosphere for an 11 am kickoff.
Navy is coming off a 28-7 win over USF after two straight losses against Notre and Rice. In order to keep their AAC Championship hopes alive, this is a must-win.
Admittedly, this is a very hard game to handicap. The teams both have similar strengths in terms of running the ball and creating turnovers, so this game may come down to who makes the fewest mistakes and makes important stops on defense. On a pure talent basis, clearly Tulane has an advantage, but Navy has perfected getting the most out of these types of matchups.
When looking for an angle to bet, I am focused on the rush offenses. Navy averages 259.1 yards per game on the ground vs. Tulane’s 227.8. That said, Tulane will be one of the better rush defenses Navy has faced this year, with Tulane being top 25 nationally allowing 116.1 yards per game. Navy is going to be effective on offense running the ball, the key will be forcing them to field goals and not getting behind on the scoreboard early.
The health of Navy QB Blake Horvath is also important. He has been dealing with a thumb injury that has impacted his effectiveness. How much it bothers him may dictate how effective Navy can be on offense.
I believe Tulane will want to get out to an early lead to force Navy to come from behind. It may be advantageous for Tulane to be aggressive early on offense to help negate Navy’s desire to control time of possession.
As such, I am looking to back Tulane in the 1st half. Aside from Notre Dame, Tulane is the most athletic and talented team Navy will have faced this year, and we saw the results against Notre Dame. I think this game plays out similarly if Tulane avoids mistakes.
Pick: Tulane 1H -3.5
AAC Matchups
The AAC continues to be hard to project as the bottom-to-middle-tier teams are the definition of mediocre. The one bet I felt good about last week did not work out, but we will give it another shot this week.
UAB at Memphis (-16) (O/U 62.5)
Since moving on from checkdown king QB Jacob Zeno to Jalen Kitna, UAB’s offense has somehow become effective 23, 59, and 25 points in their last 3 matchups (they went 1-2).
Memphis games have had an average total of 68 this year on the back of their horrendous defense. If you remove their 21-3 win over USF, that number goes up even further.
UAB has scored or allowed 35 points in all but one game.
UAB is averaging 42 passing attempts per game with Kitna at QB. They are more willing to take shots downfield rather than short, minimal completions.
Memphis' pass rush is outside the top 100, meaning UAB should be able to maintain a relatively clean pocket.
Memphis' defense is bolstered by turnovers - if UAB does not make unforced errors, they will get yards and presumably points.
Offensively, Memphis RB Mario Anderson should feast as UAB has essentially no run defense.
I think it’s likely that Memphis gets to 40. All we need out of UAB is 24 points, which against this Memphis defense, seems more than feasible.
Picks: Over 62.5
National Coverage
Two G5 matchups this week and two big favorites.
Tennessee’s QB situation is driving my thinking behind my pick. QB Nico Iamaleava suffered a head injury in the second half of last week’s game against Mississippi State, so he has been in the concussion protocol. It seems like he will play, but I would expect Tennessee to lean more on the run. If he does not play, it only helps the pick.
Most people associate Tennessee with their uptempo passing game, but their rush offense is the key for them. They are top 30 in line yards on the ground nationally.
If Nico Iamaleava is limited, Georgia will be able to stack the box and make life harder for the Volunteers.
Georgia is dealing with offensive line issues with both poor play and injuries. As a result, QB Carson Beck has not been in good form. He has performed extremely poorly when pressured. Additionally, they have been turning the ball over at an alarming rate.
Tennessee is top 5 in havoc defensively, meaning Carson Beck will be put into situations where he may turn the ball over.
I think both teams will want to be conservative and limit turnover exposure/protect injured players. As such, I am backing the 1st half under 24 points.
Pick: 1H Under 24
Summary
Roll Wave and Good Luck!
Official Picks:
Tulane (1H -3.5)
UAB @ Memphis (Over 62.5)
Tennessee @ Georgia (1H Under 24)
Season Record: 23 - 19
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