BY CORY AGULAR
Week 2 Betting Preview
NOTE: This piece was written on September 6th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's Official Picks:
Oklahoma -42 (W)
Michigan State -14 (L)
JMU/Charlotte Under 48.5 (W)
UNLV +2.5 (W)
Hawaii +14 (W)
Last Week Record: 4 - 1
Season Record: 4 - 2
Excellent week aside from Michigan State dropping the ball (quite literally) against FAU. Definitely a deceiving scoreline as Michigan State’s QB play was extremely poor, including 3 turnovers inside the redzone. Those types of mistakes lead to losing out on double digit spreads.
Not only did UNLV cover, they thrashed Houston. As I mentioned last week, this is a team I was high on going into the season, and they clearly justified my feelings on Saturday. Hawaii was in a position to pull off the upset, but ultimately did not play cleanly enough to take home the win.
Now, it is time for Tulane’s season to truly start as we turn our attention to the 17th ranked Kansas State.
Kansas State at Tulane (+9, O/U 47.5)
(Saturday 9/7, 11AM)
Heading into last week the main question about Tulane was starting quarterback. Darian Mensah was given the nod in the opener and had an exceptional showing, cementing his place as Tulane’s first option under center.
The final scoreline indicated Tulane dominance, but there are certainly some questions lingering due to the level of competition. Special teams could use some cleanup, and I would have liked to see Makhi Hughes get going a bit more, but this is being nitpicky for the first game of the season.
Looking towards Kansas State, they similarly dominated inferior FCS competition in Tennessee-Martin. 283 of Kansas State’s 449 yards came on the ground, with RB DJ Giddens responsible for 124 of that total. The defense was equally as impressive, holding UT Martin to 134 total yards.
Now, we will get a good sense of both of these teams as they take a step up in competition. When projecting this game, there are some factors that point me towards the under.
KSU HC Chris Klieman is 0 - 3 against the spread as a road favorite
11 AM kickoffs lend themselves to sleepier offensive starts
Weather may be a factor, with some wind and rain expected
Additionally, this sets up as a game where both teams will want to limit the mistakes in the passing game as both quarterbacks have question marks as passers (Avery Johnson is not a proven passer, Mensah’s inexperience). As such, I expect to see both teams try to emphasize the run.
From Tulane’s perspective, the strength of the front 7 on defense will help limit KSU’s effectiveness. I also just trust Jon Sumrall to have this defense ready. Tulane will likely follow a similar game script - the key will be limiting mistakes and explosive plays for both sides.
Both the spread and total have gone down since their openers (-10, 50), so there is clearly a lot of backing for the under. This is a type of game script that favors Tulane as the underdog, and I would not hate taking the spread bet at 9+ points; I just would rather have it at +10. It is worth noting that Tulane has been one of the best teams in the country against the spread at home in recent years, though that was under different management.
Regardless, we will learn a lot about Tulane this weekend and hopefully we walk away with a shutout victory and our under bet cashing.
Pick: Under 47.5
AAC Matchups
Army at FAU (-3.5 / O/U 42.5)
Army made some offensive changes early last year, but had a change of heart and returned to their triple option roots in the second half of the season. This has led to a winning streak, with the Black Knights winning their last 5 games.
FAU covered the spread against Michigan State last week, but they really had no business doing so after Michigan State surrendered multiple turnovers in the red zone.
FAU QB Cam Fancher is simply not an effective FCS QB (9.4 QBR last week). Compiled with their lack of ability on the offensive line, that is not sustainable.
FAU did not play a triple option team last year, meaning this will be their first exposure in awhile - as Tulane fans we all know the challenges here. The Owls are a pedestrian run defense, so not a good recipe.
I sprinkled a half-unit on the ML at +146. Not my official pick, but I would pair that with the official selection.
Pick: Army +3.5 (Play to +3)
ECU at Old Dominion (-1 / O/U 58)
ODU played extremely well against South Carolina last week - and that is with surrendering two fumbles inside their own territory that lead to USC scores.
ECU QB Jake Garcia threw 3 picks last week against Norfolk State, not an encouraging sign heading into their first FBS matchup.
ECU was a two win team last year, and a blowout of Norfolk State is not enough to indicate to me they are much improved. They need to prove it.
Give me a team that proved it against SEC competition as a short favorite at home.
Pick: Old Dominion (-1)
Other Notes
Not many other AAC lines speak to me. I have some interest in Memphis’ spread, but at 18.5 that is slightly too rich for me.
UTSA vs. Texas State will be an interesting matchup, and I may be looking to bet the over at some point (62.5). Both teams play at a high tempo and struggle limiting explosive plays. Texas State may be the best offense in the Sun Belt this year.
I think Alabama covers the spread against USF (-31). The Bulls have a lot of hype going into this year, but I think it is a bit overblown, particularly due to their play against Alabama in their matchup last year (a rain soaked mess).
National Coverage
This will be a massive week to find out what teams are really made of. In this sense, I am not attacking a lot of lines because there is still so much uncertainty. That said, there are two national matchups I have circled this week.
Boise State at Oregon (-18.5)
Boise State was lucky to get out of Statesboro, GA with the victory against Georgia Southern. Ashton Jeanty ran for 6 TDs and displayed why he is in Heisman consideration, but they have a lot of question marks defensively.
Oregon struggled against FBS Idaho State in Week 1 - they were only leading by 3 deep into the second half. However, looking at the statistics, Oregon was way more dominant than the scoreline indicated. As a result, I think we are getting Oregon at a bit of a discount here.
Boise is traveling to Autzen Stadium, one of the toughest places to play, after flying out to Georgia for an opener that was more physically demanding than they hoped for.
Oregon is motivated to wipe the bad taste out of their mouth after an embarrassing win last week.
Pick: Oregon -18.5 (Play to 19.5)
Tennessee at NC State (Over 60.5)
Two excellent QBs face off, with Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall under center for the Wolfpack and emerging star Nico Iamaleava for Tennessee. Both teams feature pass heavy attacks that look for big plays. Additionally, NC State could not get anything going on the ground against Western Carolina, so I expect them to lean on the pass. This can lead to more clock stoppage and more opportunities for points.
These defensive secondaries have a lot of question marks, and both of these quarterbacks are capable of taking advantage of mistakes.
NC State Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson’s defenses are extremely aggressive, utilizing a lot of Cover 0 and Cover 1. This is a stylistically bad matchup against a Tennessee offense that had a high success rate against those coverages last year under HC Josh Heupel’s offense.
Taking the over 60.5 here with the hope that McCall and the Wolfpack can be a bit more efficient in their passing game - they suffered mightily from drops last week.
Pick: Over 60.5
Summary
As I mentioned earlier, let's hope our Under 47.5 hits after a Tulane shutout victory. Good luck everyone!
Official Picks:
KSU at Tulane Under 47.5
Army +3.5 (Play to +3)
Old Dominion -1
Oregon -18.5 (Play to 19.5)
Tennessee at NC State Over 60.5
Season Record: 4-2
BY CORY AGULAR
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