BY CORY AGULAR
NOTE: This piece was written on September 13th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's Official Picks:
KSU at Tulane Under 47.5 (L)
Army +3.5 (Play to +3) (W)
Old Dominion -1 (L)
Oregon -18.5 (Play to 19.5) (L)
Tennessee at NC State Over 60.5 (W)
Last Week Record: 2 - 3
Season Record: 6 - 5
Such is the danger of betting early in the new era of College Football - there is still so much unknown. The Tulane pick was obviously way off, as Tulane produced way more offensive than I anticipated from a Kansas State defense that is usually not that leaky.
Army won as a moneyline underdog. Old Dominion was in the game but just did not do enough to win it. Oregon’s offensive line problems continue to haunt them and will need to be corrected fast going into conference play.
Got a bit lucky on the Tennesse over with NC State only providing 10 points, but a win is a win.
That said, let’s make some picks.
Tulane at Oklahoma (-13.5, O/U 46.5)
(Saturday 9/14, 2:30 PM)
After a heartbreaking loss to Kansas State last Saturday, there is no rest for the wicked as Tulane travel to Norman, OK as a 13.5 point underdog to the Sooners.
The Sooners are coming off a hard fought win against Houston where they heavily relied on their defense to bail out their anemic offense. Injuries and lack of continuity on the offensive line has led to early season struggles. Their blowout against Temple is hard to gauge as Temple is clearly one of the worst teams in the country. As such, I think Houston was more capable of exposing their underlying issues.
From a matchup perspective, Oklahoma’s defense will be less exposed in the secondary and less prone to big plays that really helped Tulane vs. Kansas State. Linebacker Danny Stutsman is an absolute stud, and he receives the in-helmet communication from the defensive coaches. His ability to manage the defense is a huge factor in their success.
Oklahoma historically conjures up images of high scoring, explosive offenses with loaded skill position groups. Oklahoma definitely has the talent, however, they have not been able to show it on offense due to poor QB play, which is related to their struggling offensive line. Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold has struggled with this offense - the Sooners are outside the top 100 in passing efficiency.
In terms of simple power ratings, I view Tulane as a much stronger team than Houston. On that simple apples to apples comparison, I think Tulane has a chance to keep this within the spread. The possibility of a backdoor cover is also open.
The under has been hit hard by sharp bettors, making its way all the way down to 46 points. With lower totals, double digit spreads are more likely to cover. If the total projection bears out to be accurate, Tulane would only need to score 13 or so points to cover this spread.
I am bullish on Wave + the points this week.
Pick: Tulane +13.5
AAC Matchups
FAU at FIU (+5)
We faded FAU last week with Army, who won straight up as an underdog.
FIU has been playing high-level defense for their skill level, even despite surrendering 31 points to Indiana. They are ranked 12th in tackling according to PFF, meaning they are set up to limit explosive plays against an FAU offense that is unlikely to score much otherwise.
FAU QB Cam Fancher is simply not an effective quarterback, and giving me the chance to take 5 points against him is something I will gladly do.
FIU is coming off a 52-point offensive performance against CMU, a significant watermark for a program like theirs. FIU has a clear advantage in the quarterback position.
Pick: FIU +5
Memphis at Florida State (-6.5)
Florida State has simply not performed well despite a talented roster of high-profile recruits and transfers. Many will focus on the offensive side of the ball, which has been dreadful under transfer QB DJ Uiagalelei; while fair, their offensive line has also allowed 41% pressures on dropbacks, which is massively disappointing from a unit that projected as a strength preseason.
On the other hand, you can count on solid QB play from Memphis under Seth Henigan. He did not have a brilliant day against Troy last week, but his level of experience does not make that a red flag. One thing that stands out about Henigan is his success in a clean pocket and under pressure as a passer.
This is more a fade of Florida State than an outright backing of Memphis. I believe Memphis has enough offensively to keep this within a touchdown if not outright win the game.
Pick: Memphis +7 or better
Other Notes
Coastal Carolina is visiting Temple this week as an 18.5-point favorite. I hit the -16.5 early in the week on the basis that Temple is simply one of the worst teams in the country. At this point, I think I would prefer 1H -9.5.
I would not be surprised to see Tulsa cover vs. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are not incentivized to show too much, and Tulsa is frankly playing way better than expected. I would like this at +20 or better, but it has started trickling down after sharp money flooded it on Thursday night.
Speaking of bad teams, UAB travels to Arkansas this week. I like Arkansas 1st half team total of over 21.5 points. They will want to get an early lead, so I can see them wanting to really get it over within the first half. UAB’s offense is not going to contribute much to the total, so I am comfortable laying the 21.5 on Arkansas.
National Coverage
This is not the most exciting week in terms of marquee matchups, but there are definitely some interesting betting angles. One I am focused in on
Arizona at Kansas State (Over 60.5)
Despite both teams being in the Big XII, this is actually a non-conference game.
Kansas State was gifted some points last week against the Green Wave, but their offense did generally show signs of life in the second half.
Arizona struggles to prevent teams from scoring this year: in nine drives, teams are averaging 5.3 points per trip.
Arizona’s run defense has been mediocre, which is something KSU will take advantage of.
We saw what Mensah and the Tulane passing offense could do against a leaky KSU secondary. Arizona’s strength on offense is their passing game, buoyed by highly regarded NFL wide receiver prospect Tetairoa McMillan. Three of KSU’s safeties rank towards the bottom of PFF’s Big XII rankings in secondary performance.
Arizona QB Noah Fifita has had his most success as a passer against KSU’s preferred coverage schemes
I will take the under in a game that figures to feature a lot of big plays.
Pick: Over 60.5
Washington State at Washington (neutral field) (-4.5)
Washington State is riding high after defeating Texas Tech 37-16 in week 2, but that scoreline is a bit misleading as Wazzu were gifted 3 turnovers.
Washington will be featuring Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers at QB, who was nearly perfect against Eastern Michigan last week. Their offense also features Arizona transfer RB Jonah Coleman, who averaged 6.1 yards per carry last year with the Wildcats.
Fisch’s offense handled Wazzu last year when he was coaching Arizona. Wazzu is heavily reliant on transfer production on the defensive side of the ball. This looks like a big mismatch potentially.
If Washington can limit the run, particularly from Wazzu QB John Mateer, they will be in a good position to easily cover this spread as Mateer is not a proven passer.
Pick: Washington -4.5
Summary
Roll Wave!
Official Picks:
Tulane +13.5
FIU +5
Memphis +7
Arizona/Kansas State Over 60.5
Washington -4.5
Season Record: 4-2
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