BY CORY AGULAR
BY CORY AGULAR
NOTE: This piece was written on September 20th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's Official Picks:
Tulane +13.5 (L)
FIU +5 (L)
Memphis +7 (W)
Arizona/Kansas State Over 60.5 (L)
Washington -4.5 (L)
Last Week Record: 1-4
Season Record: 7 - 9
Just a dreadful week last week. I won’t spend too much time dwelling on it as the losses were not particularly close aside from Tulane. All you can do is use it as a learning experience.
Memphis took care of business versus Florida State, though I am not sure beating Florida State means much at this point. Regardless, glad they provided us with one victory last week.
With another week of data, we have a number of AAC matchups to focus on this week. Nothing on the national slate jumps out at me as of writing, so I will be focusing on Tulane / AAC picks this week.
Tulane at ULL (+2.5, O/U 46.5)
(Saturday 9/14, 2:30 PM)
As of writing, Tulane is down to -2, -2.5 favorites after spending much of the week at -3.5. The line movement is reflective of a lot of sharp bettors and pick services liking the Ragin’ Cajuns this week for a few underlying reasons.
ULL is coming off a bye week
ULL has familiarity with Sumrall and his staff having played the last 2 seasons vs. Troy
Tulane is coming off two tough losses, the latest being on the road
Tulane’s level of competition may have worn them down a bit
Conversely, ULL is coming in fresh off a bye and their two wins were against an FCS opponent and what amounts to an FCS team in Kennesaw State
Classic “sandwich spot” - Tulane plays USF next week, so may be looking ahead a bit
ULL has had solid QB play so far
This is a pretty common betting approach when it comes to betting home underdogs. However, when looking at this specific matchup you must buy into the narrative aspect of things rather than handicapping the quality of the teams. All things being equal, Tulane is the more talented team.
I do not think this pick needs to be over complicated - either you buy the narrative and that ULL’s underlying success this year is real and they are catching Tulane in a favorable spot, or you believe that Tulane’s talent will win out.
At a short price of less than a field goal, I am more than happy to back a Tulane team that I believe wants to set the tone for the rest of the season. Additionally, I think Coach Sumrall’s familiarity with the opponent helps mitigate some of the disadvantages of facing team off a bye week.
Pick: Tulane -2.5
AAC Matchups
Charlotte at Indiana (-28.5)
The Biff Poggi experience at Charlotte has not gone to plan, and I am looking for ways to fade them all year. Conversely, I love what Curt Cignetti is doing with this Indiana program.
Curt Cignetti is 17-10 against the spread as an FBS head coach, and he loves to run it up against inferior teams. Against Western Illinois 2 weeks ago, the team took a 42-3 lead into halftime. The game finished 77-3.
Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke has been incredibly efficient, going 40 for 50 with 575 yards and 6 TDs in his last 2 games.
Charlotte is without their starting QB Max Brown
Charlotte needed a 21 point comeback in the 4th quarter to beat FCS Gardner Webb last week
Charlotte cannot protect the passer or run the ball, ranking towards the bottom in FCS in these metrics
Pick: Indiana -28.5 (bet to 30.5)
Tulsa at Louisiana Tech (-3.5)
Louisiana Tech may be fooling some people after playing one good half of football vs. NC State. Their scoring was extremely lucky in that matchup. Ultimately they lost the 2nd half 24-3.
In their opener, LA Tech struggled with Nicholls State
Tulsa has exceeded expectations, especially offensively with their big play threat Kamdyn Benjamin and QB Kirk Francis
Tulsa has an interesting edge on special teams - they are one of three teams to return both a punt and kickoff for a TD this year, an element that can help them win field position or potentially score against LA Tech.
Pick: Tulsa +3.5
USF at Miami (-17)
We get another AAC team traveling to Florida as a large underdog this week.
Miami is certainly making a case as the top team in the ACC and one of the most talented teams in the nation
However, if we recall last year, Miami started out 4-0 after defeating teams they were clearly superior to. They went on to lose a game to Georgia Tech right after. The win against Florida certainly has lost all luster
USF has history of playing up to competition, as evidenced by their play against Alabama the last two years
USF’s roster is made up of mostly Florida players, so this game has added meaning for them
Miami’s passing defense has yet to be tested, and this is an area where USF thrives under HC Alex Golesh
USF does not have the defensive pieces to win this game in my opinion, but the underlying factors I outlined make me love them at +17
Pick: USF +17
Other Notes
I like ECU to cover against Liberty (+6.5), but not making it official
I also like Army to beat Rice, and would take them if you could find anything under a touchdown
National Coverage
No picks this week.
Summary
Roll Wave!
Official Picks:
Tulane -2.5
Indiana -28.5
Tulsa +3.5
USF +17
Season Record: 7-9
Comments