BY CORY AGULAR
Week 5 Betting Preview
NOTE: This piece was written on September 27th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's Official Picks:
Tulane -2.5 (W)
Indiana -28.5 (W)
Tulsa +3.5 (W)
USF +17 (L)
Last Week Record: 3-1
Season Record: 10-10
Solid 3-1 week despite USF not getting anywhere near their line. Tulane took care of business against ULL, Indiana piled on a struggling Charlotte team, and Tulsa pulled off the upset at La Tech in overtime.
That brings the season record to 10-10, which I will take.
There are many AAC matchups this week, so we will dive into a couple of those, a national game pick after we get into my pick for Tulane/USF.
USF at Tulane (-5)
(Saturday 9/28, 11 AM)
Admittedly, this is a very hard game to handicap. Both teams have resumes against Power 4 teams, and both have shown competitiveness in those matchups. USF results are a bit misleading, but they were certainly alive in both matchups versus Alabama and Miami until injuries and mistakes did them in.
At the same time, Tulane’s season could look and feel a lot different based on the outcome of a few plays. I was a bit surprised when this opened around +7, +6.5, but it seems the public is overreacting a bit to USF’s blowout losses.
One element I always consider with Tulane is the team is 38-20-1 (65.5%) against the spread when playing at Yulman.
Going off of SP+ power ratings, Tulane (71) and USF (90) grade out somewhat similarly aside from USF’s defense, which has had two extremely daunting tasks in stopping Alabama and Miami.
Despite both playing four games, I think this matchup will be the most informative about where these teams are moving forward, which is why I am hesitant to put any money down on this game.
If forced to pick, I would lean on the over based on what we have seen from defenses and offensive capabilities. However, this is simply too many points for me to take Tulane here.
Pick: Pass
Lean: Over 62.5, Tulane -3 or better
AAC Matchups
Tulsa at North Texas (-7)
Tulsa has surprised some people this year simply by being competitive and winning 2 games thus far, beating La Tech in OT last week
North Texas is coming off a 44-17 beatdown of Wyoming, a nice followup after being destroyed by Texas Tech 66-21
This is all about matchup for me - North Texas’ offense will not face much resistance
Tulsa ranks 104th national in rush explosiveness defensively and 120 in passing success rate allowed
The Mean Green are 11th in the country in rushing explosiveness
UNT QB Chandler Morris has one of the highest PFF passer ratings in the country, sitting at 11th in the country with a 90.2 rating
The argument against North Texas is their defensive metrics, but the TTU matchup really inflated those numbers
Pick: North Texas -7
Navy at UAB (+3.5)
The first thing that comes to mind when you think of Navy’s offense is not explosiveness, however, they lead the country in 40+ yard plays, with 3 per game
Navy’s new OC added new wrinkles to the offense that allow for receivers to find space and make plays. This was evident when they scored 50 points on Memphis.
UAB’s run defense is its weak spot, something that obviously does not align well against Navy.
Last year, Navy beat this team 31-6 due to UAB’s inability to throw downfield. Their offense is heavily reliant on short pass plays to be effective. UAB QB Jason Zeno is essentially a check down merchant, which is why his completion percentage hovers in the mid 70s. Navy has shown the ability to shut down this offense.
I do not think Trent Dilfer is a good coach
Pick: Navy -3.5 (Play to 4.5)
Other Notes
I am backing Memphis to cover this week (-25.5), but will not make it an official pick. There may be some weird weather considerations due to Hurricane Helene.
ECU is a favorite this week at home vs. UTSA, which is a bit surprising from a preseason preview perspective. I would not feel good about backing either team here, but an interesting matchup nonetheless.
National Coverage
Liberty at Appalachian State (+3.5)
This is more of a fade of Liberty than a backing of App State
Liberty is now 1-3 against the spread this year, unable to cover against UTEP, New Mexico State, and Campbell, with their lone cover coming against ECU last week. They came very close to losing to New Mexico State.
Liberty is riding their brand name value at this point - they lost talent from last years roster (WR CJ Daniels) and have had a myriad of injury problems on offense and defense.
App State has not been good, particularly defensively, but I think this a good get right spot for them at home
Liberty played well after midnight last week after a long rain delay, while App State has had few more days to prepare and rest since they played on the previous Thursday)
Pick: App State +3.5
Illinois at Penn State (-18)
Illinois is off to a 4-0 start and is riding high after defeating Nebraska in OT last Friday night. This record is a bit misleading as they were outplayed by Kansas (needed a pick 6, had a +3 turnover margin, and still needed to comeback to win in the 4th). They also ran it up a bit on Central Michigan late in the game - it was more competitive than the box score indicated.
Illinois has been better than expected passing the ball with QB Luke Altmeyer (10 TD, 0 INT) - however, he has had 4 throws deemed “turnover worthy”, so he is due for some negative regression here.
Simple handicap: Penn State night home game. Hostile environment. Expect mistakes.
New Penn State OC is familiar with Illinois - his Kansas offense dropped 539 total yards on them last year
Illinois has been extremely lucky in a lot of areas this year - I think that luck runs out this week
Pick: Penn State -18
Summary
Let’s get back in the positive money this week - a clean slate! Roll Wave!
Official Picks:
North Texas -7
Navy -3.5
App State +3.5
Penn State -18
Season Record: 10-10
Comments