Week 8 Betting Preview
BY CORY AGULAR
NOTE: This piece was written on October 18th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's (Week 6) Official Picks:
UAB Team Toal Under 9.5 (1st Half) (W)
Navy -9.5 (W)
Navy/Air Force Over 37 (W)
Arkansas +14 (W)
California +10.5 (W)
Last Week Record: 5-0
Season Record: 17-11
Prior to our bye week, the betting preview feasted with a 5-0 day. We saw that UAB officially ejected on their season while Navy established itself in the playoff conversation. Disappointed California could not pull out the upset, but cannot be too bothered when they covered points. Let’s try to do it again.
Rice at Tulane (-22.5)
(Saturday 10/18, 2:30 PM)
Looking back, the -19.5 for Tulane against UAB seems like an absolute steal price-wise. We are getting a relatively similar number when factoring in home field is worth about 2 to 3 points on a line.
These large spreads are always dangerous and susceptible to backdoor covers in a game script where Tulane should score early and pull away from the Owls. From that perspective, I would avoid the full game line even though I believe Tulane will cruise.
Rice has had an underwhelming campaign so far, but they generated some positive momentum last week taking down interstate rival UTSA in overtime. Prior to that, they lost a game (at home) to a bad Charlotte team (more on them later).
Digging into the numbers tells you what you can probably already assume - Rice is abjectly mediocre to bad in most facets of the game. Coach Jon Sumrall heaped praise on Rice’s effort and pass rush on Wednesday, but outside that, there is not much for Rice to hang their hat on.
Similar to UAB, the full game spread is just too much with the possibility of the second unit coming to get some reps in a blowout win. As such, I am going to shorten the game and pinpoint the first half spread of -12.5.
Coming off a bye week, Tulane should have a strong idea of how it wants to attack Rice. Additionally, Rice is a bit limited on offense, so I find it unlikely they will contribute much to the scoreline, at least in the early going (Rice is 92nd in the country with 25.5 points per game). Rice is also unable to generate turnovers, with a total of 4 this year, so they do not put their offense in an advantageous position often.
This should be a workmanlike performance from Tulane, so I want to get behind them in the 1st half of this matchup.
Pick: Tulane 1st Half -12.5
AAC Matchups
This week is definitely highlighted by the Memphis and North Texas matchup, with both teams holding a 5-1 record. ECU at Army holds some intrigue, but ultimately, betting on AAC teams at this point of the season will be a bit of a dumpster dive.
ECU at #23 Army (-16.5)
Everybody has been talking about the service academies, and it is an awesome story. But at a certain point the public gets too gung ho and overbets the flavor of the week. This may be the time to fade Army, not because they are overrated, but because this line is just inflated.
ECU is #5 in the country in run success rate and #1 in stuff rate - in other words, their strength on defense aligns with what Army is going to try to do offensively.
One number that jumps out is Army’s insane efficiency on defense in terms of red zone stops. Opponents of have only scored on 41% of possessions in the red zone - #2 is Texas at 57%. That number is not sustainable, and negative regression is due here.
Similarly, Army has scored 22 out of 24 red zone trips, another number that is not sustainable in the long term.
This is not a bet on ECU’s quality as it is on the idea that Army is likely not one of the greatest statistical teams of all time. They’re certainly a good team that is well coached, but this is too many points.
Army’s six wins: Lehigh, FAU, Rice, Temple, UAB, Tulsa. Not exactly a murderer’s row. ECU is coming off a bye week.
Picks: ECU +16.5
Charlotte at #25 Navy (-17.5)
Yes, I am fading both service academies this week. Again, I do not think they are necessarily “overrated”, just that the market is far too aggressive on the Midshipmen.
Of course, Charlotte is a bad team. That said, they are a somewhat capable run defense and continue to play hard. They have been extremely injury unlucky this year.
Like Army, Navy’s wins are not super impressive, Memphis notwithstanding. Their other wins have come against Bucknell, Air Force, Temple, and UAB. Navy’s strength of schedule is outside the top 140 in the nation.
Navy gave up 700 yards to Memphis, and 400 to UAB. Yes, that UAB. Similar to Army, they are due for regression in their offensive efficiency.
Navy hosts Notre Dame next week, so they are in a classic lookahead spot prior to a matchup that has massive potential playoff implications.
Picks: Charlotte +17.5
Other Notes
I might have some interest in North Texas +11.5, however, their defense is so poor it is hard to get behind them at that number.
National Coverage
This is not the most exciting week in terms of matchups, but there are some interesting betting angles out there.
Insane that this is an in-season SEC matchup, but welcome to CFB in 2024.
This line seems a bit narrative driven - Texas has looked phenomenal while UGA has taken a step back, at least in the eyes of the betting public losing to Alabama and struggling on the road at Kentucky.
UGA has been unlucky with injuries, and it is most evident on their defensive line. They have not had 1 QB hurry in their last two SEC matchups.
UGA’s offense has been similarly disappointing, particularly in their typically strong run game. Florida transfer Travis Etienne has not lived up to his billing.
Regardless, this is still UGA and their injury situation is improving while they are gaining more experience, something they lacked earlier on in the season.
Texas boasts big wins over Michigan and Oklahoma, but neither of those offenses really provide much of a threat. This will be their first test against an offense, while underwhelming so far, actually provides a threat downfield and creates situations where you cannot stack the box and sell out the run.
Texas strength of schedule is 82nd in the nation. While impressive in their victories, I do view this as their first real test against a team on their level. Michigan and Oklahoma have proven they are middling teams, essentially.
Texas tends to be a bit sleepy after the Red River Shootout. The last three seasons post-win, they have struggled against Iowa State and Houston while Oklahoma State won in 2021.
Texas uses heavy quarters coverage defensively, a look that UGA QB Carson Beck has had success against in the past (58% success rate).
I think the market is way overreacting. This is still UGA after all, and this is a huge matchup in primetime. I think UGA’s coaching and talent level will at least keep this close in the first half as the teams are feeling each other out.
Pick: UGA +3 1st Half
Summary
Roll Wave and Good Luck!
Official Picks:
Tulane -12.5 1st Half
ECU +16.5
Charlotte +17.5
UGA +3 1st Half
Season Record: 17-11
BY CORY AGULAR
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