BY CORY AGULAR
Week 9 Betting Preview
NOTE: This piece was written on October 25th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's (Week 6) Official Picks:
Tulane -12.5 (L)
ECU +16.5 (L)
Charlotte +17.5 (L)
UGA +3 1st Half (W)
Last Week Record: 1-3
Season Record: 18-14
Hands up - I was completely wrong on the service academies. Their underlying statistics are insane, and due for regression, but I am not standing in front of that train again. I do think there is something to their team cohesion and makeup in this new college football world where rosters are more transient.
I won’t belabor Tulane not hitting - certainly not their best performance, and offensive miscues did not help matters.
Luckily UGA saved the day from being a O-fer. Onto week 9.
Tulane at North Texas (+7.5)(O/U 68.5)
(Saturday 10/18, 2:30 PM)
The first thing that jumps off the board is the total, which is currently sitting at 68.5 at most books after opening at 64.5. The over continues to take money, and I believe when looking at these teams, there is justification for it.
If you are an over bettor, North Texas is your team. Offensively, they are a top ten team in points and yards per game. On the other side, their defense is towards the bottom of the nation in those categories.
On top of that, they operate at a high tempo offensively (5th fastest in the nation). The quicker they score, the quicker they put their defense out there to get shredded.
North Texas is also not dinking and dunking down the field - they have 25 plays of 30+ yards this season.
From Tulane’s perspective, this is a great opportunity to get the offense rolling after a sloppy game last week. Makhi Hughes should have a massive day, and realistically Tulane left a ton of points on the board last week on dropped balls, etc.
What works in Tulane’s favor is that UNT cannot generate any pass rush. Darian Mensah in a clean pocket this year has been incredibly effective, and I expect to see that play out on Saturday.
Against quality opponents in Texas Tech and Memphis, UNT surrendered 66 and 52 points respectively. With the weapons Tulane has offensively in addition to the special teams’ capabilities scoring on returns, a similar total for Tulane should be considered realistic.
On the other side of the ball, Tulane’s defense has not faced a test like this through the air this year. KSU and Oklahoma’s QBs have both proven to be subpar passers, and the rest of the schedule speaks for itself. The game that did test us a bit was ULL, and without a few turnovers and a special teams score, that game might have gone differently.
As such, I do think UNT will score some points. UNT QB Chandler Morris is one of, if not, the best quarterbacks Tulane will face this year.
It is very possible Tulane has a massive offensive day, and UNT only needs to contribute 17-24 points in order for this to hit.
I am backing the over.
Pick: Over 68.5 (play to 70)
AAC Matchups
The only other AAC matchup I am betting on this week is Notre Dame / Navy. The rest of the teams in our conference are hard to get a read on, and frankly, would not be surprised if the underdog won outright in all of them (well, maybe if Charlotte won).
There is one thing both teams have in common - they are susceptible to the run game.
Navy is outside the top 100 in rushing success rate defensively.
Notre Dame has a stuff rate outside the top 80 - meaning, they are not very good in short yardage situations. A strong defensive interior is crucial against Navy.
Additionally, Notre Dame’s edge defenders have graded very poorly this year. Against a team that is running the option, that is extremely problematic on QB keepers.
Navy’s strength of schedule is currently 132nd. Notre Dame will unquestionably be the most talented team they have faced so far.
Notre Dame has a lot of success on inside zone run plays, which is a weak spot for Navy based on the trends this year.
I think Navy will likely go deep into their playbook early. They are not designed to play from behind - so getting early points is essential for them.
One interesting angle is that the full game total is at 51.5 at time of writing. Both of these teams tend to score a lot in the first half, particularly the 2nd quarter, and then try to lock things down in the second half. While this might be somewhat game script resultant, it is an interesting trend I am looking to back this week.
Picks: Navy/Notre 1H Over 26.5
National Coverage
I was tempted to title this section “Ashton Jeanty vs. UNLV” because that is essentially what the handicap comes down to: can he do enough to offset the likely success UNLV will have on offense?
UNLV’s offense ranks 24th in the nation in run blocking, according to PFF. This matters because it offsets Boise’s biggest strength defensively - their pass rush. They want to get you in 3rd and 7 type situations so they can pin their ears back and get to the QB. However, that leaves Boise a bit susceptible to the big play. This also does not work if UNLV can get into 3rd and sub 5 yard situations.
UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams has added a passing element to their offense since Matthew Sluka decided to leave the team. This makes them even more dynamic offensively on top of the effective running game.
UNLV special teams are really good. That matters a lot in a game projected to be within 3 to 4 points. Their kicker is currently 17/19 on the season.
Boise QB Maddux Madsen has not been a huge threat with his arm. Their game plan is really centered around protecting the football and handing it to Jeanty. He played poorly in their big test against Oregon. Can he win the game late for them? We’ll have to see.
UNLV is very good at creating turnovers, something they have done 16 times already this year.
Ashton Jeanty could very well run for 300+ yards and 3 TDs, but it still may not be enough against this UNLV team. Give me the 3.5 points.
Pick: UNLV +3.5
Summary
Roll Wave and Good Luck!
Official Picks:
Tulane/UNT Over 68.5
Navy/Notre Dame 1H Over 26.5
UNLV +3.5
Season Record: 18-14
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