
Photo Credit: Parker Waters
BY JAKE WEINSTOCK
On Saturday afternoon, in temperatures that would make the thermometer at Yulman Stadium blush, our Tulane Green Wave fell 34-19 to the ranked Oklahoma Sooners in Norman. Obviously a 1-2 (0-0) start is not what the Wave envisioned, but despite the result, there are some pretty significant takeaways that Tulane can build on as the schedule turns to ULL this weekend and then conference play for the duration of the regular season.
Mensah's Intermediate Throws & Play Under Pressure
We talked on the pre-game podcast about the need to pepper Oklahoma in the intermediate area (10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), given (A) the incredible athleticism displayed by their front seven and (B) the deep shell coverages that they regularly deploy. While it may not feel like it, Darian Mensah was actually rather effective in this area. He was 7/11 on passes into this zone, per PFF, resulting in 126 of his 166 passing yards on the day. Unfortunately, he was 0/6 on passes that traveled more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and just 3/7 on passes 1-9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which included the 4th quarter interception. I would be stunned if the deep numbers don't improve against other opponents, and if the short numbers don't improve against any front in the country, other than this one. It is clear, however, that the success in the intermediate area will translate against any opponent Tulane plays, having demonstrated elite results in that arena against back-to-back ranked opponents, in his 2nd and 3rd career starts.
That being said, his play when pressured was not ideal. First, being pressured on 15 of 37 dropbacks (40.5%) is always, at any level of football, going to be a significant hurdle for an offense/passing game/team to overcome. When pressured, Mensah was just 4/11 and took 3 sacks -- his pressure-to-sack ratio checked in at an even 20.0% (3 sacks across 15 pressures). We spoke at length on the pre-game show about how a passer really wants to be in the 10-15% range, and certainly not above 20%. Now, it would be intellectually dishonest to not point out that all 3 sacks came in the 4th quarter, with Tulane already down 2 scores (31-19 and then 34-19), and Oklahoma in a clear "pin their ears back and rush the passer" mode, but still, Saturday could be invaluable experience for the redshirt freshman passer.
Tulane's pass rush finally got going
Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma's athletic but erratic passer, was pressured on 7 of his 34 dropbacks (20.6%) on Saturday, including on the snap that resulted in Tyler Grubbs' 22-yard interception return for a touchdown. Perhaps more interestingly, 7 different Tulane defenders were credited with a pressure by PFF (Huntington, Rodgers, Agu, Laister, Anderson, Jenkins, and Grubbs), with Anderson, Grubbs, and Jenkins each pulling down a sack. Those 7 snaps were some of the Green Wave defense's best, as Arnold finished 0/3 with 3 sacks, an interception, and 1 scramble, when pressured. While Sumrall and Gasparato are hesitant to become too "blitz happy," they should consider pushing that button more, as the season continues. They blitzed Arnold 16 times on Saturday, and against those extra rushers, he completed just 6 passes and totaled 51 yards, per PFF. As expected, Kameron Hamilton (27) and Parker Peterson (33) saw their highest snap counts of the season, in another move that could be a sign of things to come, as the rotation on the defensive line takes shape. Some consistency will be needed at the "bandit" position (an edge rusher spot that is a hybrid between a true defensive end and an outside linebacker), as Shi'Keem Laister drew the start for Terrell Allen, but no one truly took charge. Laister played 12 snaps, Michael Lunz played 14, Allen played 12, and Matthew Fobbs-White played 14, while Javon Carter saw 26. That will be a spot to monitor, moving forward.
The running game had a tough go of it, but that's not unexpected against this front
Oklahoma boasts one of the best front sevens in the SEC and in the country. In all sincerity, the tape did not do them justice, before I got an opportunity to see them play, in-person. This is a significantly better group than Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, or SMU, from a year ago, or Kansas State, last week. Tulane ran 34 times for 106 yards (3.1 yards per attempt), but may be well-served to examine how and when those calls are made, in the future. On 2nd and 8 or more, the Green Wave, who had 72 offensive snaps, total, called 8 runs. Those run calls resulted in a total of 18 yards (2.2 yards per attempt). The analytics community would confirm that the 2nd and 10 run is one of the least efficient plays in football. There is no doubt in my mind that offensive coordinator Joe Craddock, a very, very skilled playcaller, will have this cleaned up. In his defense, there are not a lot of perfect calls against a disruptive front like that of the Sooners'.
Tulane's defensive performance is in no way reflected by Oklahoma's offensive output of 34 points
Jackson Arnold's splash plays with his legs aside, Tulane really did a remarkable job holding this Sooner offense in check. First, Oklahoma needed 78 offensive snaps to not elipse 350 yards of total offense (349), which results in a yards per play average of 4.47. Most playcallers will tell you that they very much want to be above 6.0, in any given game. Third, the Sooners found little success rushing the football, as the 3 Oklahoma running backs that topped 5 carries (14, 9 and 6, respectively) only averaged 3.8, 3.0, and 2.7 yards per attempt, respectively. Third, Arnold was held to a pedestrian 5.8 yards per pass attempt and was just 1/6 on passes that traveled more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The game wasn't necessarily called that way, but the Green Wave secondary covered quite well, even after losing Bailey Despanie to a targeting ejection in the 1st half.
Always enjoy the way you analytically see the game… Thanks for all you do to keep us informed…
I agree with your observations. Now, back to business in Lafayette.