BY CORY AGULAR
AAC Championship Betting Preview
NOTE: This piece was written on December 6th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's (Week 12) Official Picks:
Tulane (1H -3.5) W
UAB @ Memphis (Over 62.5) L
Tennessee @ Georgia (1H Under 24) L
Season Record: 24 - 21
I am back after a short break for Thanksgiving for a preview of the Green Wave’s battle with Army to claim the AAC championship trophy.
Looking back on the year, the official picks ended up positive with a 24 - 21 record. I cannot complain about a profit though the bad beats tend to be most memorable. Moving on from the past, let's dive into this matchup.
Tulane at Army (+5) (O/U 45.5)
Weather
There are several angles to consider in the handicap, one being the weather. Needless to say, December in New York can be cold and windy, and that will be the case tonight with temperatures in the 20s and winds gusting 15-20 MPH around kickoff.
This is reflected in the total dropping from 45.5 from the opener of 48.5. From Tulane’s perspective, their offense can travel and deal with these elements due to the heavy run focus, the concern is the lack of exposure to it this season. Compile that with what will be a lively atmosphere in Michie Stadium and this low total makes sense.
Weather can generally be overrated as a scoring factor. The general public associates cold weather with lower scoring, leading to the actual value being on the over. Using the NFL as an example, as of 2021, games with temperatures in the 20s hit the over at a 59.2% win rate (90-62-1).
In this matchup, both of these teams are top 10 nationally in red zone scoring percentage and convert 3rd downs at over 50%. Both are efficient enough to sustain drives and then get the points reward at the end. That said, neither is in a massive rush to get that reward - Looking at time per play offensively, Army is dead last at 33 seconds per play, while Tulane is only 3 spots ahead, ranking 131st nationally.
I would be more interested in the over if it dipped below 45, which is possible before kickoff. However, with two run-heavy teams, and a good defensive matchup for Tulane (more on that later), I can make the case for the under as well.
As such, I am steering clear.
Tulane Rush Offense
Both teams enter this game in the top 25 in yards per play (Tulane 19th, Army 21st). Where Army is particularly efficient is the first drive of the game, generating a touchdown on 9 of 11 attempts this year. As is the case against any service academy/option team, stopping them early is advantageous as they want nothing more than to play from ahead and milk the clock.
What bodes well for Tulane is Army can be run on, and that was evident in the Notre Dame game when the talent level took a step up (273 yards allowed). One might look at their yards per game as a measure of their rush defense, but they have faced the fewest rushing attempts per game this year nationally (25 per game), suppressing the value of that data.
Some more advanced metrics like rushing success rate and line yards have Army ranking in the 100s nationally. This is more reflective of their quality than gross volume stats like rushing yards per game.
Tulane’s offense is obviously highly dependent on an efficient run game. Based on the underlying data, and what I believe is a talent advantage, the Green Wave’s run game should resemble more of what we saw before the Memphis matchup.
The fact of the matter is, Army has faced few good offenses this year: Temple, Tulsa, UAB, ECU (in October), Air Force, just to name a few. Their performance against North Texas is also a bit inflated due to red zone turnovers on the Noth Texas’ part. Tulane will be, at a minimum, the second-best offense in terms of production and talent they will face this year.
I view this as a good opportunity for Makhi Hughes and company to have a big day in a high-stakes game.
Tulane Rush Defense
Flipping to Tulane defensively, I am bullish about this matchup based on Tulane’s talent advantage and Jon Sumrall’s recent history against option teams.
Prior to Navy, there was discussion about the Monday prep the Green Wave did for option teams such as this. That work paid off against Navy, and it will have benefit tonight. This is not a system that will totally shock this defense.
It is also worth noting Coach Sumrall faced Army in 2022 and 2023 as Troy’s head coach. Combined with this year’s Navy game, his defenses have allowed a total of 9 points.
Statistically speaking, Tulane is top 15 nationally on third downs and held teams to 7-of-23 attempts on fourth down. Against an option team, you anticipate a good bit of 3rd and 4th and short. Tulane’s ability to get off the field will be massive considering Army’s desire for ball control.
This matchup gets interesting in the red zone: Army is 3rd in the nation with a 62% red zone scoring percentage. Tulane has been extremely good at forcing field goals inside the 20 - nationally, Tulane is 17th in the country allowing 2.3 touchdowns per game. Another positive for Tulane is Army is starting to regress in this area, with 6 of the last 11 red zone trips ending in a field goal.
Army’s Bryson Daily is a stud and will definitely cause issues today, but Tulane is a talent level up from what they have seen aside from Notre Dame. Additionally, based on the last four weeks, Army’s offense is not running quite at the high level it did when it was feasting on lower-tier AAC competition.
Summary
I did not spend time diving in the passing advantage for Tulane as that should be evident. Given the weather and matchup, I think Tulane’s success on the ground will ultimately dictate this result.
I think Tulane is massively benefitting from sentiment following last week’s loss, and we are getting a little bit of a discount on a team that has a clear talent advantage. The environment is not friendly, fan or weather-wise, but Tulane’s talent is closer to Notre Dame’s than the majority of Army’s schedule. Absent mistakes, this is a favorable matchup for the wave as long as the rush offense is successful and they can continue their success on 3rd and 4th down defensively.
Roll Wave!
Pick: Tulane -4.5 (play to 6.5)
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