BY JAKE WEINSTOCK
For the second time in five days, the Tulane Green Wave (6-2, 4-0) will play a conference road game, this time against the Charlotte 49ers (3-5, 2-2), after knocking off the then-5-2 North Texas Mean Green in Denton, on Saturday. The Wave enter having won ten (10) consecutive conference road games, with their last such loss being in Memphis, the weekend after Thanksgiving, 2021. Further, Tulane has won fourteen (14) straight regular season conference games, having not lost since mid-November 2022, when the UCF Knights came into Yulman Stadium and emerged victorious, weeks before getting crushed in the 2022 AAC Conference Championship Game.
Tonight, Tulane will face an opponent that certainly underwhelms in the standings, but notably took the lead in Memphis against the 7-1 Tigers, with just 1:20 to play, before ultimately falling 33-28. Further, as mentioned, this is a Charlotte team that is likely growing more and more desperate, as the margin for error to maintain bowl-eligibility continues to shrink. The 49ers face an interesting decision at quarterback, after yanking former and perhaps future starter Max Brown, last week, who had committed four (4) turnovers in the six (6) quarters of play, after returning to action. He was replaced by true freshman Deshawn Purdie. If there has been a leak or a report of who will start tonight, please forgive my ignorance, but the chatter and vibes surely seem to point to Purdie, whose ability to create explosives down the field was the shot of life into Charlotte's arm that got them back into Saturday's game, against Memphis.
Purdie's numbers paint a wild, wild picture. The definition of "YOLO" or "No Risk It, No Biscuit:" He is completing just 56.7% of his passes and yet has a yards per attempt average of 9.1, anchored by his average depth of target of 13.1 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. It gets even nuttier when he's pressured; his completion percentage plummets of 32%, but his average depth of target skyrockets to 16.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. In other words, don't expect many checkdowns if/when Tulane generates some pressure, tonight, expect him to let it rip, consequences be damned. Imagine a poor man's Jeff George or Jameis Winston. He's been sacked on 12 of his 40 dropbacks under pressure, for an insanely high "pressure-to-sack" percentage of 30.0%. For context each of the last two quarterbacks that Tulane has faced, E.J. Warner and Chandler Morris, entered their games against the Wave with pressure-to-sack percentages under ten (10).
Purdie is much more of a pocket passer than Brown, who has likewise taken sacks on 29.4% of dropacks under pressure, has attempted 13 scrambles among his 107 dropbacks, this season. Brown has thrown 6 interceptions (10 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF) over the course of his 84 dropbacks, this season, is completing just 48.8% of his passes and he took has an eye-opening ADOT, this time of 13.3. If Tulane can eliminate the explosive plays from this passing attack, they should be in excellent shape, tonight. Expect a lot of cover 2, cover 4 (quarters), cover 6. The goal should be to force Charlotte into slow, methodical, 10+ play drives, not allowing anything explosive deep down the field. The bet would be that neither Brown or Purdie could successfully execute such lengthy drives, mistake-free. It's clear that Purdie's favorite target is and has been O'Mega Blake, who has hauled in 5 touchdowns this season on just 29 targets (18 receptions for 419 yards). His average depth of target, when targeted, is an insane 19.7 yards down the field. That's the primary deep threat to look for, though Sean Brown and Jarius Mack have seen their share of shot plays, as well.
Rather than throwing into Tulane's two-high shell coverages, the 49ers could choose to ride lead back Cartevious Norton more than they have, to date. Norton is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, including a very admirable 3.75 yards per carry after contact. He has, however, just 84 carries through 8 games. Over the last two weeks, however, he has been given 16 and 17 carries, respectively, topping his prior single-game high of 11, back in week 4. As you have likely discerned, by this point, the 49er offense has simply been below-average. They are 83rd nationally in points per play (out of 134 FBS qualifiers), 86th in points per game (21.3), 96th in yards per game, 84th in yards per play, 99th in punts per offensive score, 78th in yards per carry (4.1), and 78th in yards per attempt (7.0).
Flipping over to the other side of the ball, expect Tulane to have success moving the ball and punching it in. Charlotte is 118th in the FBS in points per game allowed (35.4), 100th in yards per game allowed (418), 104th in yards per play allowed, and 113th in punts per offensive score forced. Notably, the 49ers are 115th in yards per carry allowed, surrendering an average of 5.2 per attempt. Especially on a short week, on the road, expect offensive coordinator Joe Craddock to rely heavily on the running game with Makhi Hughes, emerging number two back Arnold "Duda" Barnes, and of course the Ty Thompson short-yardage/red zone package, especially if Tulane can gain and hold a lead, in this one. The 49ers are allowing 7.8 yards per attempt through the air, which is almost impressive (though far from good), only when viewed through the lens of having mustered just 84 pressures on opposing quarterbacks, as a team, through their first 8 games. By comparison, Tulane has generated 90 pressures through their four conference games, alone. On that note, expect Matthew Fobbs-White to continue his incredible emergence. Over the last five games, he has tallied 2, 4, 3, 3, and 3 pressures, including last week's sack fumble that resulted in him being named one of the FTW "Players of the Week," for which he was honored and interviewed on this past week's edition of the Jimmy O Show with my FTW Cast co-host and one of the founders of the Collective, Jimmy Ordeneaux.
Prediction: While I hate playing on the road on a Thursday, five days after a different road trip, there just don't seem to be many areas where Charlotte excels that should be of much concern to the Green Wave. Tulane should be able to run the football and take away explosives. If they can do both of those things, and continue to play even remotely turnover-free or turnover-limited football, they're going to win by double-digits. Tulane 45-23
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