Tulane @ South Alabama Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

The Tulane Green Wave (1-0, 0-0) have won the most road games in the FBS since the start of 2022 (15), and will be looking to pad to that number, tonight at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama as they take on the South Alabama Jaguars (1-0, 0-0). These programs met two years ago at Yulman Stadium, in the season opener, and the Wave coasted to a 37-17 victory, but both schools have changed head coaches, since then. Following that 2023 season, then-South Alabama head coach Kane Wommack resigned to take the defensive coordinator position at Alabama, while Willie Fritz, well, you know that part.

Major Applewhite, who had been Wommack's offensive coordinator in 2022-2023, and whose Houston Cougars were 2-1 against the Green Wave from 2016-2018 was the head coach, there, was then elevated to be the head coach in Mobile. Last year, in Applewhite's first at the helm, the Jaguars went 7-6 (5-3) with a Salute to Veterans Bowl win over Western Michigan, following a 6-6 campaign. The only common opponents between the two teams in 2024 was North Texas, who South Alabama lost to 52-38 on opening day, in Mobile (the Green Wave defeated the Mean Green 45-37 in Denton, in late October). However, it would be unfair to fail to note that the Jaguars finished the season by winning 5 of their final 7 games, after a 2-4 start to the year.

They of course lost quarterback Gio Lopez to a North Carolina-based basketball school in the ACC (sound familiar?) and receiver Jamal Pritchett to the NFL, but return some good players. Bishop Davenport, who was the primary backup to Lopez, last season has stepped in as the starting quarterback for South Alabama, this year, and will be making his 5th career start, tonight. Across 170 career dropbacks, he has completed 85 of 136 passes (62.5% completion percentage, with an adjusted completion percentage of 71.5%, after drops are charted as "completions" rather than incompletions). He has a career average depth of target of 8.6 yards beyond the line of scrimamge, but of note, like Jake Retzlaff last week, his average depth of target on opening day was under 4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, at 3.5. One area of note, however, is that while the data indicates over his career that his "time to throw" is an average of 2.55 seconds from snap to release, he has been taken down for sacks on 23.4% of snaps on which he is pressured, which is a rather high such percentage. If Tulane can improve on the 17 pressures from last week and finish with 20-25, the data would indicate they should wind up with 4-5 sacks, tonight.

Davenport made clear in the season opener who his favorite target is, and that's none other than Devin Voisin, who is in his astonishing 7th year with South Alabama. In the Jaguars' season-opening 38-21 win over FCS Morgan State, Voisin led the team with 7 receptions on 7 targets. Notably, one other player, Anthony Eager had 2 targets, but not another South Alabama player had targets, plural. Voisin is attempting to replace Pritchett's production from a season ago, where he finished with 91 receptions for 1,126 yards and 9 touchdowns. Carrying the load in the ground game is sure to be sixth-year back Kentrel Bullock, who led the backfield last week with both 24 snaps and 23 carries. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry, which is right in line with his 2023 and 2024 averages of 5.3 yards per carry (on 84 carries) and 5.5 yards per carry (on 151 carries), respectively. Over Applewhite's career, he has been very close to a true 50/50 playcaller, in his run/pass splits, but I found it noteworthy that last week, in a game against an FCS opponent that was by no means a blowout, he called 40 rushes to 17 passes. It will be interesting to see how much he trusts his quarterback should Tulane jump out to a lead, though he may have no choice.

On the other side of the ball, I think you could make the argument that the their three best players on defense are all in the secondary; safeties Ty Goodwill and Wesley Miller, along with corner Nehmiah Chandler. While Goodwill and Miller are returners, Chandler was an impact addition in the portal, from Georgia Tech. Linebacker Blayne Myrick and edge rusher Tirrell Johnson, Jr. are good players, as well. Johnson made his presence known last week with 3 pressures against Morgan State (tied for the team-high). It cannot be overstated, I believe, that FCS Morgan State, who went 6-6 last season (and 3-2 in something called the "Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference"), ran for 5.2 yards per carry last Saturday night at Hancock Whitney Stadium against these South Alabama Jaguars. In all, they rushed for 201 yards on 39 carries, and 3 touchdowns, though their quarterback did manage to fumble the ball 3 times, per ProFootballFocus.

In 2020, when these two programs met, they were similar, the Green Wave were at the beginning of their 3rd consecutive six-win season, and actually trailed the Jaguars 24-6 with 5:08 to play in the third quarter, before winning 27-24. In 2023, Tulane had taken an obvious step forward, coming off the Cotton Bowl victory months prior, and won 37-17. I do believe that this version of the Green Wave is even more talented than that 2023 team, and that yet another step has been taken. We'll see if I'm right.

Prediction: Tulane 31-7