Tulane @ Tulsa Preview

BY JAKE WEINSTOCK

"Why do we fall Bruce? So we can learn to pick ourselves up." -Alfred Pennyworth, Batman Begins (2005)

Fresh off a disappointing loss in Oxford, Mississippi, Tulane (3-1, 0-0) will look to open conference play with a win for the fourth consecutive year, this time in Tulsa, Oklahoma, against the Golden Hurricane (2-2, 0-1). Tulsa, for their part, is fresh off a 19-12 win over Oklahoma State, which was the Cowboys 11th consecutive FBS loss (they subsequently fired head coach Mike Gundy after two decades at the helm, this week). Tomorrow's matchup will kick off at 3:00 pm CT (ESPNU, 106.7 The Ticket).

The Green Wave will be looking to build on their 23-4 record (22-2 in the regular season) in American Conference play since the start of 2022, and look to pick up their 36th win overall, during the same time span. While the market has made Tulane a 15.5 point favorite in this matchup, Tulsa has done some good things this year, beyond just the Oklahoma State win, and should not be overlooked. Lead running back Dominic Richardson has totaled 442 yards on 85 carries (5.2 yards per attempt) with two scores, through four games. He has also generated 3.7 yards per carry after contact, which is an impressive such number. He's picked up nineteen first downs and has nine carries of 10 yards of more, so containing him at or near (or behind) the line of scrimmage will be critical.

Tulsa's offense has not been one that's been overly successful when forced to take to the air. Quarterbacks Kirk Francis and Baylor Hayes have combined for 883 yards on 94/149, which is a mere 5.9 yards per attempt. Francis has missed the last two games with a concussion, and while Hayes has filled in admirably, it's an open question as to which gives them a better chance to win. Tulane should be prepared for either or both, this weekend. Hayes has been more effective, overall (adjusted completion percentage of 72.3% versus 66.7% for Francis), but has certainly been a little looser with the football; ProFootballFocus has not tagged Francis with a single turnover-worthy play across his 56 attempts, while Hayes has been pegged with 5 such throws across his 90 attempts.

Both quarterbacks, however, have done an excellent job of not allowing pressures to turn into sacks, as Hayes has a pressure-to-sack percentage of just 9.4% and Francis has a similarly strong mark of just 11.1%. While they've not taken sacks, they have both been two of the least effective quarterbacks in the country, when pressured. Hayes, for example, has completed just 9 of 27 attempts when pressured, and even his adjusted completion percentage is a bit below 50%. Regardless of which quarterback has been in the game, Zion Booker has been the go-to-guy in the Golden Hurricane's passing game. He has corralled 29 of his 36 targets for a total of 273 yards and a touchdown. He will be a handful for spears Javion White and TJ Smith, as he has lined up in the slot on 91.5% of his snaps, this season. His 29 catches lead the team by a wide margin, as the next closest Tulsa pass catcher has 10, through 4 games.

On the whole, this just has not been an overly strong Tulsa offense. Among 136 FBS qualifiers, here's where they rank in the following categories:

Yards per play, 4.9: 99th

Third Down Conversion Percentage, 36.1%, 85th

Points per Game, 18.7: 96th

Points per Play, 0.243, 111th

Punts per Offensive Score, 1.0: 70th

Yards per pass attempt: 5.7, 119th

Yards per rush attempt, 4.3, 62nd

Expected Points Added per Play, +0.03, 79th

Success Rate, +1.3%, 87th

Flipping over to the other side of the ball, the Golden Hurricane defense has allowed 5.1 yards per play (49th best in the FBS), 25 points per game (63rd best in the FBS), 4.8 yards per carry (100th best in FBS), 0.333 points per play (52nd best in FBS), 5.8 yards per pass attempt (22nd best in FBS). From that, we can extrapolate that the defense has been the more impressive unit, this season, and that certainly matches up nicely when we examine certain individual performances.

For example, linebacker Ray Coney has played 289 of Tulsa's 293 defensive snaps, and has earned a 88.5 grade by ProFootballFocus, this far. Opposing quarterbacks have just a 32.8 quarterback rating when targeting cornerback Elijah Green and edge rusher J'Dan Burnett has racked up 11 of Tulsa's 50 pressures, on the season, converting 4 of them into sacks. Coney has totaled 8 pressures, and not to be outdone, edge rusher Byron Turner, Jr. has produced 9 pressures and 4 sacks, as well.

The Green Wave have played in four pretty physical games, and could certainly use next week's bye, but cannot afford to overlook this Tulsa opponent if they want to keep all of their goals on the table, as the calendar turns to October. It does not have to be pretty this week, Tulane just has to win. But that said, I have a feeling that it will be pretty, and the Wave will get back on track after last week's brutally disappointing performance against Ole Miss

Tulane 31-10