BY CORY AGULAR
Week 11 Betting Preview
NOTE: This piece was written on November 8th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.
Last Week's (Week 11) Official Picks:
Tulane (1H -7.5) (L)
Rice (+11) (play to +10.5) (W)
Penn State (+3.5) (L)
Last Week Record: 1-2
Season Record: 21-17
I feel a bit unfortunate to go 1-2 last week - Tulane and Penn State were both in positions to cover the number but came up short.
I feel great about the Rice call, though. I think the service academies, particularly Navy, had been playing a bit above their level just based on things like turnover luck and quality of opponent. Army gets a similar test this week (more on that later)
Temple at Tulane (-26.5) (O/U 50.5)
Tulane comes into the matchup as 26.5 / 27-point favorites, and for good reason. Temple is not a very good football team.
Their two wins this year come against Tulsa and Utah State, both teams not known for consistently solid play this year. Initially, I was considering the over here.
I think there are some data points in Temple’s offense that show they can score some points. Their lowest total this year was 14 against Army, who obviously is the highest-caliber opponent they have faced this year. They can throw the ball decently, ranking around 60th in the nation in yardage, but are near the bottom of CFB in terms of rushing.
What gives me pause is the weather forecast. Rain and wind will certainly put a damper on some explosive plays downfield, but in many cases, weather is a bit overrated in terms of handicapping totals. That said, it certainly helps Tulane that Temple cannot run the ball effectively.
From Tulane’s perspective, Temple’s susceptibility to the run aligns well with what they want to do. Temple is currently 123rd in the nation allowing 213.4 rushing yards per game. As a result, Temple’s defense has some decent numbers against the pass in terms of yardage due to teams not needing the throw as much.
As such, I do not see the over as viable here. This game aligns very similarly to the Charlotte game in the sense Tulane should win in terms of talent, and their strengths are a nightmare matchup for the Owls. Tulane should be able to exert their will and control the time of possession with a bruising ground game. Mix in some explosive plays, and the game could get out of hand quickly.
I do not want to overthink this one too much. Give me the better team at home on Homecoming.
Pick: Tulane (-26.5) (Play to -27)
AAC Matchups
The AAC is simply wild. One week Tulsa upsets UTSA after a huge comeback, the next week they get blown out against UAB. FAU looks like they are putting it together, and then get blown out by ECU. There is simply a lot of variance and unknowns about the middle and lower pack in the AAC that makes betting on them a misadventure.
With that said, I do like one angle on two of the better conference teams.
Army at North Texas (+4.5)
The Mean Green are coming off a bye week, which is helpful when you need to prepare for the different style of offense Army brings as well as some time to get healthy.
There are some questions at QB for Army, with Bryson Daily being listed as probable after missing last week with a foot infection. The production drop with the backup is large. Daily will probably play, but may be somewhat limited.
Army has yet to face an offense anywhere near the caliber of North Texas. Looking at their schedule, you will see teams with essentially no quality QB play or situations where they faced a backup.
North Texas struggles with turnovers (creating and giving away), and despite out-gaining teams like Tulane and Memphis in terms of total yardage, they still lost. If they can clean this up and get some luck both creating and not turning it over, that certainly will help a lot.
On the other hand, Army’s +11 turnover margin is statistically unsustainable long-term. Eventually, some bad breaks will go their way.
While North Texas defense is absolutely terrible, their offense is a top-25 offense for a reason. They will be able to keep up.
Picks: North Texas (+4.5)
National Coverage
Two G5 matchups this week and two big favorites.
Georgia State at James Madison (-16)
This is the 4th road game in 23 days for Georgia State.
James Madison is coming off a bye week, and their prior matchup saw them throttle Southern Miss.
Yes, Georgia State beat Vanderbilt - but that is their only FBS victory this year. I think it was a bad spot for Vanderbilt and they got caught sleeping a bit.
The Georgia State scoreline against UConn is a bit deceiving - they required a scoring off a turnover and a big play on 4th down to score a touchdown in order to shrink that gap.
Georgia State is not good at all on the defensive side of the ball. They are in the 120 range nationally in terms of defensive success rate.
James Madison, on the other hand, is 3rd in the nation defensively in success rate. They also lead the nation in turnovers with 23 forced.
James Madison is also offensively capable of scoring points, so I see no reason why they lay off the throttle here.
Pick: James Madison (-16)
Jacksonville State (-10) at Louisiana Tech
Jacksonville State is positioned to compete for a spot in the CUSA championship game. Essentially, they need to win out to get themselves into a tiebreaker situation.
Louisiana Tech has been poor offensively, with an offensive success rate of 131st in the nation. They have only scored 14 points in 3 of their 5 conference matchups.
Jacksonville State is led by their run game with 379 rushing yards per game. Nationally, they are 16th in rushing success rate and average over 45 points per game in conference play .
This is a simple play on teams trending in two different directions. Louisiana Tech is a bit rudderless while Jacksonville State has been rolling this year, including a win over Liberty.
Simply put, Jacksonville State is the better team and Louisiana Tech cannot score offensively.
Pick: Jacksonville State (-10)
Summary
Roll Wave and Good Luck!
Official Picks:
Tulane (-26.5) (Play to -27)
North Texas (+4.5)
James Madison (-16)
Jacksonville State (-10)
Season Record: 21-17
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