Week 6 Betting Preview

BY CORY AGULAR

Week 6 Betting Preview

NOTE: This piece was written on October 4th, 2024. Provided lines are subject to change.

Last Week's Official Picks: 

• North Texas -7 (W)

• Navy -3.5 (W)

• App State +3.5 (DNP)

• Penn State -18 (L)

Last Week Record: 2-1

Season Record: 12-11

Officially positive for the year so far. North Texas and Navy took care of business in a resounding fashion, and both look like teams that will provide Tulane a challenge in their future matchups. Navy just sucked the will out of UAB, and with the Blazer’s head coaching situation, I would be fairly shocked to see an inspired effort from UAB this week. North Texas’ offense can keep them in any game, and that is another team that I think many are sleeping on after their massive loss to Texas Tech.

Penn State's offensive effort was disappointing after scoring on its first drive. With only 21 points, it was a hard number to cover, but alas, we are onto Week 6.

Tulane at UAB (+17)

(Saturday 10/5, 12 PM)

If I had more resources, I would first like to know the last time Tulane was this large of a favorite on the road. It is certainly not something we are used to seeing, but of course, you love to see it. This line opened up around 14 points and moved to -17 in conjunction with the news UAB QB Jacob Zeno will not play. 

Of course Tulane is coming off their best win of the season, a complete effort on both sides of the ball, whereas UAB is coming off a 41 - 18 loss to Navy that was never even close. Just looking at the scoreline you might assume Navy just ran the ball all over them, but no, they managed to throw for 225 yards in addition to 227 rushing. We can parse the numbers all we want, but the fact is that UAB is a bad football team with a bad, lame-duck football coach. Throw in that they are starting their backup QB with limited to no experience and there is not much like about the Blazers this week. 

This is the type of game where I do not think underlying metrics are important in terms of finding value. The backdoor is super open as if Tulane takes a big lead, I can see some rotation of players and UAB may sneak a score or two at the end to cover the number. For the same reason, I find the total untenable at 55.5. 

However, I will look to fade UAB here. In order to avoid late-game shenanigans, I am taking UAB’s Team Total Under 9.5 (1st Half). I have little to no faith in their offense, and barring a defensive TD or giving away favorable field position, I do not see them hitting this number.  Additionally, they only managed 3 first half points against Navy and did not hit this number in a full game against ULM. Their performance against Arkansas is such an outlier that it is almost worth ignoring.  

Pick: UAB’s Team Total Under 9.5 (1st Half)

AAC Matchups 

Overall, not much intrigue from a watch-ability or betting standpoint in the AAC this week, but there is one game and two picks I like here. 

Navy at Air Force (+9.5)

• As discussed earlier, Navy is coming off a massive win against UAB. Their passing game improvement under OC Drew Concic is the most notable aspect of that win. While still an option offense, they have emphasized the passing game more than in years past. 

• Air Force allowed 7 explosive rush plays to a struggling Wyoming team last week. Being poor against the run is never a recipe for success against the service academies. 

• Air Force lost that game to Wyoming, and their lone win this year is a 21-6 win over Merrimack College. 

• 5 of the last 6 games played in Colorado Springs have ended with 43 points or more. 

• Yes, this is an intense rivalry game, but I do not think Air Force is good enough to keep up. Yes, these matchups tend to be close and go under, but I think Navy scores enough points here to help us hit the over. 

Picks: Navy -9.5 (play to -10), Over 37 

Other Notes

• Army heads to Tulsa as a 12.5 favorite. Army has been very good this year, and Tulsa has been somewhat solid until last week against North Texas. I would not be surprised if last week's version of Tulsa and Army wins this running away, but I am not putting any money behind this.

• I am also tempted by ECU -8.5, but they do not project as a team that will run away with games. Too many points in an interstate conference matchup. 

National Coverage

This is not the most exciting week in terms of matchups, but there are some interesting betting angles out there. 

Tennessee at Arkansas (+14)

• Tennessee has looked really good in their first four matchups but with more data about their two big victories (NC State, Oklahoma) I have some questions about their true quality. NC State has not gotten going offensively with QB Grayson McCall and Oklahoma continues to be hampered by injuries and poor QB play on offense. 

• Despite impressive offensive showings, Tennessee is still outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate. They score points, but not necessarily efficiently. 

• Tennessee has not faced a rushing attack as capable as Arkansas yet. The Hogs are top 5 in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush nationally. Arkansas establishing the run will go a long way in keeping the Vols off the field. 

• Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold was benched for Michael Hawkins, Jr., who offers more of a scrambling threat. This change led to more efficiency from Oklahoma and more problems for Tennessee. 

• Arkansas QB Taylen Green can use his legs to exploit this gap in Tennessee’s defense

• I can see this playing out like Ole Miss/UGA vs. Kentucky if Arkansas limits their mistakes and Taylen Green is effective passing the ball.  

• Arkansas HC Sam Pittman is 21-8 against the spread as an underdog. He is 3-0 this season, and is 9-3 as an underdog of more than 10 points. 

Pick: Arkansas +14

Miami at California (+10.5)

• College Gameday is making its first-ever trip to Berkeley for this matchup, which will help provide a big gameday atmosphere for the Bears

• Miami’s wins have not aged well. Blowing out Florida and USF does not look quite as nice at this point of the season. 

• California has been extremely injury-unlucky, particularly on offense. One key is that their starting RB Jaydn Ott will be back at full strength for this matchup. Additionally, it looks like two projected starting WRs will be making their season debut this weekend. 

• Not a massive factor, but coming off a dramatic win against Virginia Tech the team must go cross-country for this matchup. It is essentially the same amount of travel as an NFL team would take for a London game, so this is an unusual situation travel-wise for most teams other than Hawaii. 

• Miami QB Cam Ward is an extremely inconsistent performer, as seen by his performance last week against VT. When he’s on he’s one of the best, but he is prone to mistakes and can make dumb and excellent plays in equal measure. 

• Cal HC Justin Wilcox is 15-7 against the spread as a double-digit underdog

Pick: Cal +10.5

Summary

Roll Wave and Good Luck!

Official Picks: 

• UAB Team Toal Under 9.5 (1st Half)

• Navy -9.5

• Navy/Air Force Over 37

• Arkansas +14

• California +10.5

  
  

Season Record: 12-11